Australia vs Lebanon Predictions

Since exiting the World Cup in June, Australia have only played twice but they’re unbeaten during that time. The Socceroos thrashed Kuwait by four goals to nil just over a month ago, while they earned a respectable draw against South Korea just three days ago. Graham Arnold’s men will be looking to build on that result by regaining the winning thread against lowly Lebanon, who’re ranked 79 places below the Aussies in the world rankings.

Australia did exit the World Cup at the earliest possible point, though their performances in Russia were respectable. They lost by just a single goal to the eventual champions and weren’t disgraced by any means, while they were perhaps unlucky not to beat Denmark when drawing 1-1. They were unfortunate to lose to Peru on match-day three also.

Since the World Cup, the Socceroos haven’t faced much quality, though their efforts against South Korea last time out weren’t bad. What’s more, the manner in which Arnold’s men trounced Kuwait, who recently played Lebanon, suggests that they can really hurt the visitors on this occasion.

Against Kuwait, the Aussies were in complete control from start to finish, as they made light work of creating opportunities and, crucially, scoring goals. In that game, they clocked an impressive 2.87 expected goals for, while they gave up just 0.32 at the other end. A similar performance against a weak Lebanon side would likely see the hosts cruise to another comfortable win.

Unlike Australia, Lebanon struggled when they recently faced Kuwait. On that occasion, Tuesday’s visitors lost by a goal to nil, as they struggled massively to impose themselves on the game, managing just four shots, none of which were on target, and just 0.39 expected goals.

If we consider that Lebanon emerged from their 1-0 defeat against Kuwait with a -0.14 expected-goal supremacy, then it’s very easy to see the Aussies enjoying themselves in this match. Against the same opposition, Abraham’s men emerged with a +2.55 expected-goal supremacy, while they also accumulated a far better shot count.

Given their respective recent performances against Kuwait, the bet that stands out is ‘Australis to Score Over 2.5 Goals’, at what appears to be a relatively generous price. Having scored four and registered an expected-goals for count of 2.87 against a side no worse than Lebanon, the Socceroos are backed to once again hit their stride in the final third.