Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Bayern Munich’s 4-1 win at home to Dutch side PSV was the reigning champions first win in four competitive matches (2 Bundesliga and 2 Champions League). Carlo Ancelotti’s side will no doubt now be determined to get back to winning ways in the Bundesliga against their old rivals Gladbach, who they have failed to beat in any of the last four meetings between them. Ancelotti has plenty of world class players to choose from, but one lesser known player has certainly been making a name for himself. Joshua Kimmich, the 21 year-old central midfielder, has built up a strong case to earn himself a place in the starting eleven. Kimmich put Bayern 2-0 ahead against PSV in the Champions League with his 7th goal in eight appearances across all competitions and should be decent value to score anytime at 13/5 with bet365. Bayern haven’t gone three Bundesliga matches without a win since May last year and should continue to rely on his energy to help bounce back to form.

Borussia Monchengladbach have been struggling both domestically and also at the European level so far this season. The “German Team” found their first win in the Champions League with a 2-0 win away to Celtic on Wednesday, but they need a boost in the Bundesliga; Gladbach have taken just one point from their last two Bundesliga matches – a 4-0 thrashing against Schalke and a frustrating 0-0 draw against Hamburg. Coach Andre Schubert will no doubt have had some words with his side, after last Saturday’s goalless draw, as his team failed to capitalise on a ten-man Hamburg for the majority of the game – Hamburg had a man sent off in the 25th minute – and also failed to convert twice from the penalty spot.

Borussia M’gladbach have, however, enjoyed a decent run of form against Bayern in recent years – Gladbach were the only side the Bavarians failed to beat in the Bundesliga last season and they’ve also taken two wins and two draws from the last four meetings between them. However, we feel Bayern will set the record straight here. Both sides have been “under-performing” for top tier teams, but it’s Borussia M’gladbach’s awful away form in the Bundesliga which is most notable – Gladbach have won just 1 of their last 14 matches on the road (W1 D4 L9). Meanwhile, although Bayern are going through a shaky patch of form, their “poor” results have also come from fixtures on the road, not at home in the Allianz Arena.

Bayern Munich are huge favourites with the bookies at 1/5. While we’re inclined to agree the hosts will clinch it, we don’t see much value in backing them at such short odds, unless adding them to an accumulator. Notably, however, is that even though Bayern Munich against Borussia M’gladbach sounds like an exciting game, it has had some relatively low scoring outcomes in recent years – 4 of the 5 most recent matches between Bayern and M’gladbach had under 3.5 goals scored (one 0-0 draw, one 1-1 draw and one 2-0 win for Gladbach). Both Bayern’s and Gladbach’s goals scored per match has slipped over recent fixtures and under 3.5 goals scored also landed in 3 of Bayern’s last 5 (60%) and 5 of Borussia M’gladbach’s last 6 matches (83%). As such, under 3.5 goals at 8/11 with bet365 is our main bet here.

Borussia M’gladbach have failed to score in two of their last three away across all competitions and Bayern are averaging around 2 goals per match over the same number. From that, we feel a correct score of 2-0 for Bayern Munich at 6/1 seems about right for this match.