Benfica vs Arouca Predictions

• Benfica won all five pre-season friendlies with at least three goals in four of those games.
• Benfica beat Midtjylland 4-1 in a Champions League qualifier on Tuesday and it could have been more.
• Benfica have won ten of the last 11 meetings with Arouca.
• 59% of Benfica’s home league games last season featured more than three goals.

Schmidt’s influence already plain to see

Benfica were right on brand when bashing Midtjylland into submission in midweek and Roger Schmidt’s men can bring another opponent to their knees when Arouca travel to Lisbon on Friday.

New coach Schmidt is renowned for high-intensity attacking play with plenty of risks and occasional lapses at the back – which is what has been delivered throughout the Eagles’ pre-season program too. Benfica won all five warm-up games with at least three goals in four of them and then took the Danish team apart at the Luz in a 4-1 Champions League qualifying victory that could easily have seen them score six or seven.

It’s going to be a hard ask for Arouca, a team that stayed up by a couple of points after gaining promotion in 2020-21, to keep the scoreline from getting embarrassing on Friday – even if Schmidt decides to rest a couple of players for the second leg in Herning.

Arouca in for an uncomfortable night

But why would he do that when he’s been brought in to deliver the Primeira Liga title and his side have already established a comfortable first-leg cushion? Hence we would expect the hosts to come out all guns blazing again with Arouca on the back foot throughout the contest.

Armando Evangelista’s side picked up just two away wins in the league last term and lost nine, but they were only blanked in 29% of their road trips – suggesting they might be able to grab one at the Luz.

A healthy 59% of Benfica’s home league games last season featured more than three goals – and that was before Schmidt arrived – so we are confident of the win and over 2.5 goals selection here while a 3-1 margin looks very achievable for them in correct score betting. Benfica have scored at least three goals in four of their last six home meetings with Arouca and probably would have done at the same stage last season if they hadn’t rested key players in a 2-0 success.

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