- Estadio da Luz
- Benfica have won 15 of their last 19 competitive matches at the Estadio da Luz.
- Benfica won six of their nine domestic matches that followed European games last season (Drawn 1, Lost 2).
- Benfica have won eight of the last nine meetings with Arouca.
- 59% of Benfica’s home league games last season featured less than three goals.
Eagles will rest key men against Arouca
Benfica are unlikely to be at full strength from the start for their first home league fixture of the season against promoted Arouca.
Jorge Jesus will rest and rotate a number of his best XI out of this game with a view to next week’s crucial Champions League play-off first leg against PSV Eindhoven.
And given the chaos that ensued when he did the same for last week’s Primeira Liga opener at Moreirense, we could understand some reticence in backing the Eagles at short odds.
Although they came through 2-1 against a team likely to be mid-table at best this season, Benfica looked vulnerable once they had gone down to ten men and could easily have drawn the game.
But their home record – and results in weeks after playing a European game – gives us the necessary confidence to support them to pick up three points on Saturday.
Arouca scored only 45 goals in the Segunda last season and will come to Lisbon to defend – hoping for a better showing than against Estoril last week – so the threat of a low-scoring affair is there.
There were Over 2.5 goals in only 41 per cent of Benfica’s home matches last season and the Eagles could also go into game management mode if they get into a 2-0 lead in order to save energy for the PSV clash.
So we’ll take a chance on Benfica and Under 2.5 goals landing here with a correct score prediction of 2-0 to the hosts.
*To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.