A year after Detroit ruled the NFC North and Chicago finished last, the Bears have flipped the script by clinching the 2025 division title at 11-5 behind new head coach Ben Johnson, while the Lions sit at 8-8 and are out of the playoff hunt. Chicago remains motivated despite a 42-38 loss at San Francisco, whereas Detroit has dropped three straight, gone 1-4 in division play, and hasn’t won on the road since Week 10. With playoff seeding on the line for the Bears and the Lions eliminated and unreliable as underdogs, it’s difficult to trust this Detroit squad.

Week 18 closes the 2025 season with a matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders, two AFC West teams going nowhere, but Las Vegas looks like a full-on fade after shutting down key players and getting blown out by the Giants last week in a battle for the #1 draft pick. Kansas City’s season has been ugly, especially with Patrick Mahomes sidelined, yet the Chiefs are still competing, coming off a respectable loss to Denver and benefiting from extra prep time under Andy Reid. Given the Raiders’ apparent lack of effort and Kansas City’s willingness to play it straight, KC should win and cover as road favorites to end their season somewhat on a high.

The line move tied to Josh Allen potentially missing this game has gone too far, as the Jets have completely unraveled, allowing massive scores and losing their last four games by at least 23 points. Even without Allen, Buffalo should be able to dominate a collapsing New York defense, especially at Highmark Stadium, where Mitch Trubisky is more than capable of steering a touchdown-plus win. With seeding still at stake for the Bills and the Jets struggling to score or create turnovers, this matchup strongly favors Buffalo to win by margin.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh on SNF is as bruising and meaningful as ever, with recent meetings deciding playoff fates and the Ravens winning last year’s Wild Card while the Steelers stole Week 18 in each of the two seasons prior. Pittsburgh comes off an ugly loss in Cleveland, but this kind of spot is where Mike Tomlin thrives, especially as a home underdog, and the potential return of TJ Watt offsets recent offensive struggles without DK Metcalf. Baltimore gashed Green Bay on the ground behind a massive Derrick Henry performance, but with Lamar Jackson banged up and inconsistent, this feels like a spot where the market overvalues the Ravens and gives value on the Steelers catching over a field goal at home.

A year after Detroit ruled the NFC North and Chicago finished last, the Bears have flipped the script by clinching the 2025 division title at 11-5 behind new head coach Ben Johnson, while the Lions sit at 8-8 and are out of the playoff hunt. Chicago remains motivated despite a 42-38 loss at San Francisco, whereas Detroit has dropped three straight, gone 1-4 in division play, and hasn’t won on the road since Week 10. With playoff seeding on the line for the Bears and the Lions eliminated and unreliable as underdogs, it’s difficult to trust this Detroit squad.

Week 18 closes the 2025 season with a matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders, two AFC West teams going nowhere, but Las Vegas looks like a full-on fade after shutting down key players and getting blown out by the Giants last week in a battle for the #1 draft pick. Kansas City’s season has been ugly, especially with Patrick Mahomes sidelined, yet the Chiefs are still competing, coming off a respectable loss to Denver and benefiting from extra prep time under Andy Reid. Given the Raiders’ apparent lack of effort and Kansas City’s willingness to play it straight, KC should win and cover as road favorites to end their season somewhat on a high.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh on SNF is as bruising and meaningful as ever, with recent meetings deciding playoff fates and the Ravens winning last year’s Wild Card while the Steelers stole Week 18 in each of the two seasons prior. Pittsburgh comes off an ugly loss in Cleveland, but this kind of spot is where Mike Tomlin thrives, especially as a home underdog, and the potential return of TJ Watt offsets recent offensive struggles without DK Metcalf. Baltimore gashed Green Bay on the ground behind a massive Derrick Henry performance, but with Lamar Jackson banged up and inconsistent, this feels like a spot where the market overvalues the Ravens and gives value on the Steelers catching over a field goal at home.