Gibraltar vs Greece Predictions

• Gibraltar have lost their last ten games played at Estadio do Algarve, by an average score of 5-0.
• Greece have hit 11 goals in their last six internationals.
• Gibraltar conceded 17 goals in six Nations League games last year.

Gibraltar not as good when off the rock

Gibraltar are back playing their games in the Algarve for the next couple of years and that should help Greece grab a comfortable victory in Friday’s Euro 2024 qualifying clash. Los Llanis have performed much better when in front of their fans at Victoria Stadium and even won back-to-back games there against fellow minnows Liechtenstein and Andorra last autumn.

But giving up home advantage because of their unsuitable stadium will be a major obstacle to Julio Cesar Ribas’ hopes of causing a shock or two in this group.

Greece have been underachievers on the international stage for some time, but Gus Poyet oversaw a successful Nations League campaign last summer in which they were promoted back to League B after five wins from six games. The Uruguayan has got them playing in a more attack-minded style and that has seen their goal production rise from just over one goal per game in 2021 to almost 1.5 in 2022.

Pavlidis can plunder a couple in rout

They also have one of the most in-form strikers in Europe right now in Vangelis Pavlidis, who has hit 20 goals in his last 28 games for AZ. It would be no surprise to see him mark his return to Ethniki with a goal or two on Friday night.

Greece are on the up again and should win comfortably, hence the -2 handicap recommendation. Gibraltar’s goalkeeper will need to have an exceptional game to keep the visitors from getting at least three goals from this encounter, but given the combined score across their last ten trips to the Algarve is 2-49, the correct score preference is for a 4-0 away victory.