Manchester City vs Real Madrid Predictions

• City have won 11 of their last 14 games at the Etihad
• Real have lost three of their last five visits to Manchester City
• Five of the last six meetings between these two have seen both teams score

City have a mountain to climb

Manchester City were favourites to progress past Real Madrid and make the Champions League quarter-finals, but Pep Guardiola’s side were blown away at the Bernabeu last week.

The City boss maintained that the result flattered Real, but the underlying numbers were clearly in favour of the Spaniards, who won the Expected Goals battle 2.63 to 0.59.

As City look to mount a comeback at the Etihad, there’s reason to back more goals in the second leg.

Real can create more chances

Guardiola’s side have won one of their last four matches following Saturday’s 1-1 draw at West Ham. City were the dominant side at the London Stadium, but they were punished by the Hammers’ only effort on goal.

Since the beginning of February, City have kept only three clean sheets, and one of those was against League Two Salford. They should struggle at the back again, as the set-up of this tie should suit the visitors.

City will look to force the issue, allowing Real Madrid to play on the break. That space on the counter should suit Vinicius Junior, who will be desperate to make up for his penalty miss in the first leg.

Real have failed to score only once under Alvaro Arbeloa’s watch, while five of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen both teams find the net.

City can turn the screws on Real

Last week’s win was Arbeloa’s most impressive result since taking over from Xabi Alonso, but protecting the lead is a very different test. His side suffered that 4-2 loss in Benfica when they thought they were cruising to a top-eight finish, and they couldn’t withstand Benfica’s push to gain a two-goal lead and jump into the top-24.

Real will need to withstand similar pressure on Tuesday, as City look to restore some pride at the very least. Even last year’s struggling City side took a 2-1 lead at home to Real in their home leg, before they suffered one of their many late collapses. Before that, City had won three of their last four home clashes with Madrid, and Guardiola’s side picked up a 2-1 win in Spain back in December.

City are worthy favourites, having won 11 of their last 14 at the Etihad across all competitions. Given the threat Real pose on the break, back City to win and concede on Tuesday night.