Nurnberg vs Werder Bremen Predictions

It’s fair to say that Nurnberg are already on their way back down to 2. Bundesliga. The Bavarian club have gone from one of the big boys in the second division to Bundesliga whipping boys in no time at all. They’ve won just two games all season and are now without a league win in no less than 13 matches.

Nurnberg have gone a long time without a win in the Bundesliga, but some of their recent efforts at home have been respectable. They were unfortunate to lose by a two-goal margin against Hertha in their most recent match at this venue, while they were bitterly unlucky when losing by a goal to nil against Freiburg prior to that, as the fact that they ended the game with a +0.50 expected goal difference suggests.

In fact, if we look at Nurnberg’s overall efforts at home this season, it’s easy to see that they’ve not been as simple to face as the league table may suggest. Overall at home, Nurnberg are averaging a measly 1.08 expected goals for, but they’re only giving up an average of 1.04. Such numbers aren’t great, but they do tell us that Nurnberg aren’t getting outplayed all the time in front of their own fans. What is also encouraging for the hosts is the fact that they’ve shipped 1.0+ expected goals in just two of their last six at home.

Unfortunately for the visitors, Werder Bremen have offered a more than reasonable amount going forward on their travels of late. Saturday’s visitors have scored at least once in 100% of their travelling matches this season and are averaging a pleasing 1.5 goals per away game. They’re also averaging a respectable 1.47 expected goals for. Moreover, if we exclude their defeat away against Dortmund, Bremen’s last four away expected goals for figures read 2.58, 2.56, 1.79 and 1.62. Such numbers bode very well ahead of a match against a side that offers little going forward.

Nurnberg have been tougher to get at than the league table would have us believe, but the fact that they’ve offered a minimal amount in the final third makes them tough to fancy. In contrast, Bremen have offered plenty going forward of late, especially on their travels. Quite simply, unless the hosts improve their attacking output, which has seen them score two goals in their last five home matches, then Bremen are likely to have enough about them in the final third to come out on top. The defence-minded hosts can make the visitors work for all three points on Saturday afternoon, but with their extra forward quality, Bremen are backed to edge it.