Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Predictions

• Real Madrid have conceded only three goals in six home league games, winning each of them
• Los Blancos have won their last four home games, generating 12.6 xG to 3.5 in that stretch
• The hosts have won by two goals in six of their 11 wins this term

Real to cruise on home return

Real Madrid play their first game at the Bernabeu since November 1st on Sunday night. Los Blancos went on a six-game road trip across all competitions to accommodate the NFL game held at their stadium.

Xabi Alonso’s side struggled to find their footing on the road, winning none of the first three trips. However, they finished on a high note, with victories over Olympiakos and Athletic Bilbao, along with a dominant display in a draw at Girona.

Alonso’s side have generated 9.8 Expected Goals across their last four games, with Kylian Mbappe in fantastic form. The Frenchman has either scored or assisted each of Real’s last eight goals.

Alonso’s side signed off at home with a 4-0 win over Valencia. Their three prior home games saw them beat Barcelona, Juventus, and third-placed Villarreal. Across those four games, they generated 12.6 xG to their opponents’ 3.5.

Celta Vigo have been profiting from a kind run of games on the road, but they fell to a 4-2 home defeat to Barcelona earlier this month. They’ll struggle to keep pace with a Real side who have conceded only three times across six home La Liga matches.