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MIA Heat -8.5
vs MIL Bucks
Reason for tip

Milwaukee has a net rating of -14.5 over their last 5 games, all losses. Giannis is still out, without him they have the 2nd worst offensive and the 23rd worst defensive rating. Miami is in a good groove with 5 wins in a row, they’re 8-1 SU at home, they should handle their business here.

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MIA Heat -8.5
vs MIL Bucks
Reason for tip

Milwaukee has a net rating of -14.5 over their last 5 games, all losses. Giannis is still out, without him they have the 2nd worst offensive and the 23rd worst defensive rating. Miami is in a good groove with 5 wins in a row, they’re 8-1 SU at home, they should handle their business here.

OKC Thunder -10.0
vs MIN Timberwolves
Reason for tip

The Wolves enter a bad matchup, sitting 0-3 ATS as underdogs and 3-6 ATS on the road, with inconsistent defense and shaky late game execution. Meanwhile, OKC is rolling behind elite scoring efficiency, averaging 122.6 PPG and thriving at home with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the attack. Given Minnesota’s struggles and the Thunder’s strong two way form, this spot heavily favors OKC.

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MIA Heat -8.5
vs MIL Bucks
Reason for tip

Milwaukee has a net rating of -14.5 over their last 5 games, all losses. Giannis is still out, without him they have the 2nd worst offensive and the 23rd worst defensive rating. Miami is in a good groove with 5 wins in a row, they’re 8-1 SU at home, they should handle their business here.

OKC Thunder -10.0
vs MIN Timberwolves
Reason for tip

The Wolves enter a bad matchup, sitting 0-3 ATS as underdogs and 3-6 ATS on the road, with inconsistent defense and shaky late game execution. Meanwhile, OKC is rolling behind elite scoring efficiency, averaging 122.6 PPG and thriving at home with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the attack. Given Minnesota’s struggles and the Thunder’s strong two way form, this spot heavily favors OKC.

GS Warriors -2.5
vs HOU Rockets
Reason for tip

The main concern for Houston here are injuries to Kevin Durant, Steven Adams and Tari Eason. Golden State will be relying on their stellar home form to get the win, they’ve won 9 of 11 at home vs the Rockets and have covered in 6 of 7 overall at Chase Center. I’ll take Stephen Curry and co. in this one.

SA Spurs -1.5
@ POR Trail Blazers
Reason for tip

The Spurs are trending upward with improved spacing and healthier rotations (although not tonight without Wemby), making this a favorable spot against a Portland team that struggles offensively. The Blazers have been unreliable when expected to win, going 1-6 ATS as a favorite, largely due to poor efficiency and late game execution. Given the matchup and trends, San Antonio has the stronger outlook.

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