40/1, 33/1 & 25/1 2026/27 NBA Regular Season tips
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
Last season’s NBA playoffs were a roller coaster, as the San Antonio Spurs, our 5/1 outright tip, upset the defending champion OKC Thunder before blowing their favourite status to the New York Knicks in the Finals.
Along with that near-miss, we also had a strong showing on our player props, with plenty of winners through each round.
The new NBA season begins on Tuesday, and I’ve picked out six bets for the regular season, including 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 22/1 tips.
NBA Regular Season Predictions
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers to be number 1 seed – 9/1
An injury-hit start saw the Cleveland Cavaliers take a step back last season, going from top seed in 2025 to fourth last season.
They swapped Darius Garland for former MVP James Harden in February, and they put together a 21-9 run with him in the team, before making their first Conference Finals since 2018.
The addition of Peyton Watson this summer completes an incredibly strong starting five, which has a high-scoring backcourt and two 7-foot starters.
They’ve won over 70% of their regular season games since Kenny Atkinson took charge in 2024. While they’re hard to trust in the postseason, they’re a consistent regular season team and they are capable of topping a more competitive conference.
The Cavs also feature in a 23/1 double on our NBA Predictions page, where we’ll have nightly tips throughout the season.
Western Conference
Houston Rockets to be number 1 seed – 22/1
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are seen as streets ahead of the rest of the West, but the Houston Rockets could compete with them in the regular season.
The Thunder tore up their bench with money-saving trades, and the Spurs will need time to adapt to a new starting five featuring three smaller guards.
The Rockets won 52 games in each of the previous two seasons, and they are a much stronger group heading into the new campaign.
Fred Van Vleet’s return from injury, along with the addition of Marcus Smart, gives the Rockets two options at point guard after a season without one.
The Rockets were a dominating rebounding force before Steven Adams picked up an injury, while they have a number of young players ready to take a jump.
At 22/1, they’re a massive price to top the West, while a 55-win season for both the Rockets and Cavs is 15/1.
Cleveland and Houston to win 55+ games – 15/1
NBA Awards & Stat Leaders
Walker Kessler to win Most Improved Player – 25/1
The Lakers overhauled their roster around Luka Doncic this summer, and they finally landed the big centre they’ve been chasing since acquiring Doncic in February 2025.
The point guard makes life easy for centres in terms of scoring, but the Lakers look lightweight defensively outside of Kessler.
After playing just five games for the Utah Jazz last season, it shouldn’t be hard for Kessler to make a marked improvement in his fifth year.
He can limit his game to his strengths with Doncic alongside him. It wouldn’t be a shock if he topped his career highs in points, rebounds and blocks, making Kessler a standout for Most Improved Player at 25/1.
Jayson Tatum most threes made per game – 33/1
Jayson Tatum looks overpriced in this market, considering this is his first campaign as Boston’s main man after Jaylen Brown’s trade to Philadelphia.
Jayson Tatum averaged 3.5 made threes per game in his last fully healthy season in 2024/25; only three players topped that number.
Doncic led this category last season with 4.0, and Tatum could potentially top that number as the number one option on a Celtics side that was third in three-point makes last season.
Kawhi Leonard most steals per game – 40/1
The Toronto Raptors have brought back their 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, pairing him with star Scottie Barnes.
Barnes will be their primary defender, but that should allow two-time Defensive Player of the Year Leonard to thrive.
Leonard is one of a handful of players to average more steals than fouls per game in his career. He finished last season with 1.9 steals per game, a shade behind the league-leading Ausar Thompson, who had 2.0.
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