The Men’s Wimbledon Championships have been dominated like no other tournament since 2003, with only the members of the ‘Big Four’ getting their hands on this prestigious title. Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray are the only four players to have won this title since Federer won his first in 2003, and 50% of the time since then two of them have contested the final.
Despite the unbelievable dominance by the members of the ‘Big Four’ in recent years, we’ve seen three first-time finalists at these Championships in the last three years, and so the rest of the field are starting to close the gap. Could an outsider go all the way this year? Here are our top 5 outsiders this year:
The Canadian ace has been one of the highlights of the season so far, and he could be in line for a deep run at these Championships. The eighteen-year-old has played two warm-up tournaments in the build-up to these Championships, and he achieved great results at both.
Auger-Aliassime reached the final in Stuttgart, while he also reached the semi-finals at the Queen’s Club Championships this past week.
The teenager is making his debut here this year, and that’s likely to be his biggest obstacle to overcome. He’s never played a five set match in his career so getting embroiled in a long match means his fitness could hold him back going all the way.
Canadian Milos Raonic is always a dangerous player at these Championships, and there’s great value to be had on him this year. The Canadian ace reached the final here in 2016, while he’s also reached at least the quarter-final stage in four of the last five years. The twenty-eight-year-old is also coming into these Championships after enjoying a couple of pretty good grass-court results, reaching the semi-finals in Stuttgart and the quarter-finals at the Queen’s Club Championships.
The former Wimbledon finalist is coming into what has been historically his best grand slam event, holding a 75% win-rate here, and at odds of 33/1, he’s our each way Wimbledon prediction for the tournament
Twenty-three-year-old Berrettini has been playing excellent tennis all season, and he’s continued that level so far in the grass season. Berrettini won his first ATP grass-court title at the Stuttgart Open a couple of weeks ago, while he followed that up by reaching the semi-finals at the Halle Open.
The Italian ace is heading into these Championships with an 8-1 record on the grass this season, dropping just three sets on the surface so far this year. Matteo Berrettini has the third best win-rate of anyone of the ATP Tour on the grass this season, and there’s great value to be had with the Italian at these Championships. A lack of experience of playing five set matches, especially against the elite could prove to be his downfall however and we think he will fall just short.
Goffin has started to rediscover some of his best tennis in recent weeks, and at odds of up to 100/1, the Belgian represents significant value at these Championships. It’s no secret that form is a major factor as to who does well at these Championships, and in the last sixteen years, at least one finalist from either Halle or Queen’s has gone onto at least reach the final here.
The Belgian ace reached the final in Halle last week, playing arguably his best tennis in well over a year. Goffin has reached two finals on this surface in the past, whilst he’s reached the fourth round here on a couple of occasions before. David Goffin has come into form at the perfect time, and he could cause some damage over the next couple of weeks. Consistency has been Goffin’s problem and up against the best in the world, we think we won’t quite have enough to go all the way.
Daniel Evans in the most in-form British player entering this tournament. The twenty-nine-year-old is somewhat of a grass-court specialist these days, and he’ll certainly be one of the players the seeds will want to avoid in the early rounds. The British ace has won two grass-court Challenger events in recent weeks, in Surbiton and Nottingham.
The main question to be asked is whether he can do it over 5 sets against the better players in the world, and whilst he’s a big price we don’t quite think he’s got enough to go all the way here this time around.
- Mon Nov 2019
- Betfair Exchange
- Sat Nov 2019