6th Sept - Blue Jays vs Orioles

Marco Estrada takes the mound for Toronto tonight with the Blue Jays deciding to give veteran Mark Buehrle an extra day of rest. The last time Estrada faced the Orioles, he got into the eighth inning without giving up a hit, and he’s been pitching pretty well all season long posting an 11-8 record and 3.16 ERA. He’s been especially good in Toronto lately posting a 3-1 record and 1.89 ERA in his last five home starts.

The decision to rest Buehrle suggests that the Blue Jays have one eye on what comes next. Still, they still have plenty of work to do to make it into the postseason. They are just one and a half games up on the Yankees and the Wildcard race is tight.

They’ll possibly be secretly pleased to see Chris Tillman on the mound. Baltimore’s starting pitcher has had a hard time against Toronto all season. In his last outing in Toronto back in June, Tillman didn’t make it through the second inning and he’s given up more than 25 runs across four starts in just 15 innings so far this season.

Like many members of Baltimore’s staff, Tillman has been going through a rough stretch losing three straight decisions and struggling to stay in the ball park. Facing the league’s most productive offense isn’t necessarily the best match-up at this point.

Three Reasons for Betting Tips

1. Psychological edge on Tillman

This is a very tough Blue Jays lineup and we think that they have a mental edge on Tillman, who doesn’t have his best stuff right now. Maybe they’ll endure an off-evening, but we’ll gamble on that and expect them to easily overcome a team total line of 4.5.

2. Estrada is a good pitcher

Estrada has a set of quality pitches and he likes throwing in Toronto. Baltimore’s offense was stifled again last night after exploding in the series opener. We don’t think that they have a whole lot of consistency and we’ll bank on Estrada to outduel Tillman here.

3. Orioles are tailing off

It’s hard to interpret Baltimore’s poor form in any other way. They’ve dropped to five games below .500, they’re slipping out of Wildcard consideration and they don’t seem to be the same team with any of the same determination. Their season is over bar the shouting.