Alanyaspor vs Besiktas Predictions

Besiktas maintained their pleasing run of form last weekend when they beat Galatasaray in front of a home crowd. That’s now four wins in a row for Şenol Güneş, who after a tough patch are starting to come to the boil. With that confidence-boosting win under their belts, Friday’s visitors ought to fancy themselves to get the better of a struggling Alanyaspor side.

Having beaten Kayserispor by five goals to nil in late November, Alanyaspor had built themselves a platform from which to build, though it was back to square one last time out, as they lost away to Konyaspor. That match highlighted the fact that Friday’s hosts lack the quality to compete against the stronger teams in the division.

To say that Alanyaspor are finding it tough to collect points at present would be a slight understatement. Friday’s hosts have won just one of their last seven, while they’ve lost each of the other six during that time. However, back towards the start of the campaign, they were useful on their own patch. In fact, from a performance point of view, despite what recent home results may suggest, Alanyaspor have looked much better on their own patch.

When playing in front of a home crowd, Alanyaspor have offered a threat going forward, as the fact that they’re averaging 1.63 expected goals suggests, while they’ve carried out their best defensive work at Alanya Oba Stadium, conceding an average of just 0.99 expected goals. Besiktas are not easy to face, though the hosts would sooner take on Güneş’ men in front of a home crowd rather than travel to the hostile Vodafone Park.

Besiktas remain one of Turkey’s top teams, even though they are six points off top spot, but they’ve not been infallible on their travels, so perhaps there is hope for the home side.

Away from home, Besiktas have often struggled to be at their best. They’ve won just two of their seven travelling games, while they’re yet to keep a clean sheet when playing away from the comforts of home. Such a stat bodes well for Alanyaspor. With the players in their ranks, the visitors obviously offer a significant threat going forward, though that threat has been less on the road. Besiktas are averaging 1.46 expected goals away from home, which is a far cry from the 2.29 that they’re averaging in front of their own fans.

If we consider that Besiktas haven’t quite scaled the heights on the road, then it’s not terribly difficult to make a case for the hosts, who’ve done reasonably well at home, at the prices. On their own patch, Alanyaspor boast better underlying numbers than Besiktas at both ends of the pitch, while they ought to be buoyed by their 5-0 win in their most recent home match. With an average expected goal difference of +0.64 at home and with the visitors averaging an expected goal difference of just +0.20 on the road, the early market may just have underestimated the hosts and thus a small bet on ‘Alanyaspor Draw No Bet’ represents a smidgen of value.