Arsenal vs Vitoria Guimaraes Predictions

When Arsenal welcome Portuguese outfit Guimaraes to North London on Thursday evening, they’ll be looking to extend their 100% record in Group F. The visitors go in search of a first group win having lost both of their first two fixtures.

Unai Emery’s Arsenal come into this fixture off the back of a disappointing defeat on Monday night, as they lost by a goal to nil away against Sheffield United, though they have made an encouraging start to life in Group F, so confidence is unlikely to be low.

After two matches, the Gunners find themselves sitting pretty at the top of the group having beaten both Frankfurt and Standard Liege in rather simplistic style. When playing in Germany on match-day one, Emery’s men did show signs of defensive weakness, so much so that they were fortunate to keep a clean sheet, but as they created lots and scored three goals, their attacking qualities were there for all to see. When facing Liege at home on match-day two, Arsenal once again showed their offensive quality, scoring four goals and posting an impressive 3.45 expected goals for.

While Arsenal have been impressive during the early parts of the group stages, Guimaraes have been underwhelming. Away in Belgium on match-day one, Thursday’s visitors didn’t play badly, in fact, they were the better team and were thus unfortunate to return home with nothing to show for their efforts. An expected goal difference of +0.94 certainly suggests that they deserved much more than a 2-0 loss. Their 1-0 loss to Frankfurt was also a tad unfortunate, as they were once again in the game throughout.

What Guimaraes have made clear is that they’re not going to be easily knocked over. Despite conceding three goals in two matches, they’ve not actually given a great deal away, shipping a respectable 1.5 expected goals in that time. However, they’ve also shown that they lack end-product, which doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of a game against an Arsenal side that has scored seven in two Group F matches.

In all honesty, this is another game that makes limited appeal betting wise. Based on what we’ve seen from the pair so far, Arsenal look likely to come out on top, though since the visitors have looked tough to get the better of, the hosts look to be a tad too short in the early betting. On this basis, a small punt on ‘Guimaraes +1.5 Asian Handicap’, which yields a win if the visitors don’t get beaten by more than a single goal, is merited. Frankly, after giving little away against both Liege and Frankfurt, the visitors appear to have a slightly better chance of avoiding a big defeat than the current odds suggest.