Aston Villa vs Burnley Predictions

• Villa have won three straight games, but they’ve struggled to create chances in those matches
• These two sides have the two lowest Expected Goals tallies in the league, scoring a combined 10 goals in six games
• The hosts have averaged 0.82 xG in matches where they’ve dominated possession
• Anthony has scored in four of his last five for Burnley

How good are the Villains?

Aston Villa’s season appears to be up and running, after they rattled off three consecutive victories. Unai Emery’s side made it two wins from two in the Europa League on Thursday night, securing a 2-0 win at Eredivisie leaders Feyenoord.

However, underlying numbers suggest that Villa’s run isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. They were marginally the better side in a 1-0 home win against Bologna, but they were well-matched by Fulham in last Sunday’s clash, with the pair each producing 1.1 Expected Goals in a 3-1 victory for the Villains.

Thursday’s win saw Villa beaten 1.5 to 0.6 in the xG battle. Add in a busy run of fixtures – this is their seventh match in the space of 23 days – and suddenly there’s some vulnerability around Emery’s charges.

What can Burnley offer?

Scott Parker arguably deserves more credit for his Burnley reinvention. He’s now guided three teams to the Premier League, each in a very different fashion. His Clarets side are defence-first, which hasn’t gone completely to plan in a difficult start to the campaign.

Burnley were put under extreme pressure by Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester United, and City in their four defeats so far. They have the worst Expected Goals Against figure, but Parker built a tough backline in the Championship last term. They should prove more resolute against this Villa side, which is likely to lead to a game where chances are few and far between.

Back against goals from two stunted attacks

After six rounds of action, Aston Villa and Burnley are the league’s two worst sides when it comes to creating chances. Burnley are bottom with an xG of 4.5, while Villa are narrowly ahead with 5.0. The pair have scored a combined 10 goals so far, so unders should be the favourite here having landed in seven of Villa’s first nine.

Villa have enjoyed their strongest attacking displays in games where they have limited possession, struggling to create chances when they have a lot of the ball. They’ve generated 0.82 xG per game when they’ve had 51% of possession or higher, failing to score in three of those five games.

In Jaidon Anthony, Burnley have a player who is making the most of the chances which fall his way. He’s scored in four of his last five games for the Clarets, hitting the target with six of his last eight efforts at goal. Villa’s lowest xG Against tally this term was 1.0 against 10-man Sunderland, so Anthony should get a chance here, making him a huge price in the anytime scorer betting.