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Bayern Munich vs Hamburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 14:30
  • Expired
  • Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich
Hamburg

Tip Reasoning

Bayern Munich have been “unconvincing” for their standards in the Bundesliga in recent weeks, relying on very late goals in both of their last two matches to produce results – goals from Vidal and Robben in the 90th and 92nd minute respectively sealed them a 2-0 win over Ingolstadt, while Lewandowski pulled them back to 1-1 in the 96th minute last time out away to Hertha Berlin. Carlo Ancelotti’s search for his first Bundesliga title is by no means locked yet, as RB Leipzig’s win away to Borussia M’gladbach reduced the reigning champions lead to just five points.

Meanwhile, Hamburg have had a much needed change of fortune as of late. Back-to-back Bundesliga wins against Bayer Leverkusen (1-0) and surprise title contenders RB Leipzig (3-0) followed by a 2-2 draw at home to Freiburg have seen Markus Gisdol’s side climb from 17th to 15th and two points clear of the automatic relegation spots. Loanee Kyriakos Papadopolous has made an immediate impact at the club since signing in January – he scored in both wins against his former clubs – but he might miss out here after being subbed off in the 31st minute last weekend.

Bayern Munich are huge favourites at 1/8 with bet365. While we fancy league leaders Bayern to take all three points, an outright bet on the Bavarians isn’t too tempting at such a short price. Instead, we feel there’s some decent value in “both teams to score” here for the following reasons: Hamburg’s attacking form is much improved since their awful start to the season. The North Germans have scored at least one goal in all but one of their last 12 matches (92%), peaking their form with two or more goals scored in all of their last three matches. While Bayern Munich hold the best defensive record in the Bundesliga (13 goals conceded), the reigning champions are also not without imperfection. Bayern Munich have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last seven Bundesliga matches at home (57%), including against the (then) out-of-form Schalke 04 last time out at the Allianz Arena.

Regarding a correct score bet, Bayern are without doubt the strongest side in the Bundesliga and hold a top track record against Hamburg (see head-2-head), so this match should represent a straight forward three points. As such, Bayern’s strong 2.7 goals scored per match average at the Allianz Arena, combined with Hamburg’s potential to clinch a consolation goal, should make a 3-1 win to Bayern Munich at 11/1 a decent shout here.

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