Benfica vs Juventus Predictions

• Juventus have seen under 2.5 goals scored in four of their last seven games.
• Benfica have only conceded five goals in 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, and four of their last five matches have now contained under 2.5 goals.
• Only five teams have conceded fewer Champions League group-stage goals than Benfica (three) this season, while only two have allowed opponents fewer expected goals (2.9 xGA).

Bianconeri on the brink

Juventus’ humiliating 2-0 defeat to Maccabi Haifa a fortnight ago put them on the brink of an early Champions League exit, and only a win will do if they are to stay alive when they visit Benfica in their penultimate Group H game on Tuesday. Although Massimiliano Allegri’s team have returned to form on the domestic front since their last Champions League defeat, Benfica look likely to keep things tight as they bid for the point which would seal their own progression.

Juventus hammered struggling Empoli 4-0 on Friday to make it back-to-back Serie A wins, but taking the game to Benfica may prove difficult for a side which has struggled in attack this term – Allegri’s team have been outscored by 18 of the other 31 teams playing in the Champions League group stages, and have seen under 2.5 goals scored in four of their last seven matches, failing to score on three occasions. Away from home, meanwhile, Juve have not scored multiple goals once this season, netting just three times in six road trips this campaign, in all competitions.

Benfica, meanwhile, have conceded just five goals in their first 10 Primeira Liga games to open up a six-point lead at the summit, and deservedly beat Porto 1-0 last time out. Four of Benfica’s last five games have contained under 2.5 goals, and Roger Schmidt’s men rank highly for their defensive performances in the Champions League this term; only five teams have conceded fewer group-stage goals, and only two have allowed opponents fewer expected goals (xGA), despite their tough group.

Benfica can keep things tight

At the Estadio da Luz this season, Benfica have won eight of their nine games, the exception being a 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain, and Schmidt’s in-form team will prove a tough nut to crack here.

Under 2.5 match goals is our main tip, and despite Juventus improving in recent games, we doubt their ability to remain in contention for a top-two finish. Benfica are unbeaten in 18 competitive outings this season, making a 1-1 draw a decent correct score prediction.