Bulgaria vs Kosovo Predictions

Having avoided defeat in each of their last four matches, Bulgaria would’ve gone into Friday’s game feeling reasonably upbeat, though they were unable to get anything off the Czech Republic, who prevailed by two goals to one. Boss Krasimir Balakov will be hoping that a return home sparks a return to winning ways.

The score-line may have suggested that it was close, though Bulgaria were well beaten by Czech Republic on Friday night. As was the case when they visited Kosovo and hosted Montenegro, Balakov’s men failed to make much offensive headway, as they posted just 0.41 expected goals for. Such a number suggests that they were fortunate to get on the score-sheet at all. At the other end of proceedings, the Bulgarians failed to both prevent their hosts from creating, while they also couldn’t resist the pressure, as they shipped two goals and 2.51 expected goals.

In contrast, Kosovo performed reasonably well to draw against Montenegro on Friday night. They weren’t overly flamboyant, but they didn’t give too much away. Overall, they were deserving of a point on their travels, which is much more than can be said for the Bulgarians.

This will be the second time that the pair have met in Group A. Back in March, the Kosovans welcomed Bulgaria to Pristina, where they were certainly good value for a share of the spoils. In fact, in what was ultimately a game lacking in forward quality, it was Kosovo who impressed more, as they outshot their visitors (13 to 5), registered twice as many shots on target, posted 0.98 expected goals for and conceded only 0.44.

From a betting point of view, the likely lack of goals sticks out straight away. Not only did the pair both offer little going forward in the reverse qualifier, but if we look at their respective home and away efforts in the recent UEFA Nations League, then it’s easy to plump for a drab affair.

At home during the Nations League, Bulgaria averaged a measly 0.38 expected goals for, though they only conceded 0.64. Similarly, on their travels in that competition, Kosovo averaged 0.97 expected goals for, while they surrendered an average of just 0.45. Add in the fact that the pair conceded a combined average of just 0.83 goals and ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ is hard to avoid.

There probably aren’t occasions where ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ represents value at the current odds, though this game appears to break the mould in that respect. All things considered, supporting the goals to stay away in Levski is the best option.