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Bury vs MK Dons Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • Gigg Lane
Milton Keynes Dons

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Bury have re-launched their push for promotion over the last few weeks and are now very much in the mix to go up automatically. Saturday’s hosts have now won each of their last three fixtures, which means that they sit in third, five points behind the league leaders and just a point behind their opponents here.

The Christmas period was a fruitful one for Bury, who’ve shown that they’re one of the chief promotion candidates in recent weeks. Over the festive period, the boys from Gigg Lane won three out of four, while they’re now unbeaten in five. Having ground out a 1-0 win away against Yeovil last time out, the hosts ought to approach this massive game against promotion rivals feeling confident.

One of the impressive things about Bury in recent times is that they’ve proved to be flexible in how they get the job done. Ryan Lowe’s men have battered teams by getting on the front foot and playing an attacking game, but they’ve also looked sturdy and have had the character and discipline to edge ahead in tight affairs, much as they did last weekend.

Bury have also looked strong on their own patch. Saturday’s hosts have won each of their last five at home, while they’re now unbeaten in eight at Gigg Lane, six of which they’ve won. They’ve created chances, have scored plenty of goals and have generally offered more at both ends of the pitch than their opponents.

However, the hosts, who’ve conceded in three of their last four at home, haven’t been overly strong at the back in recent home games. In their last three at Gigg Lane, Lowe’s men have given up expected goals figures of 2.09, 1.78 and 1.46. Such numbers haven’t come back to haunt them just yet, but they’re now up against a strong MK Dons side, so they may need to do better.

Scoring goals has been part and parcel of MK Dons’ game on the road this season. Saturday’s visitors have scored in all but one of their travelling matches, while they’ve notched two or more in three of their last four, scoring a total of nine goals during that time. Paul Tisdale’s men have also looked good from a creativity point of view, as they’re averaging 1.7 expected goals for and have posted figures of 2.8, 1.21, 1.34, 2.99 and 1.66 in their last five away games.

From a quality point of view, there’s little between the pair. Both are capable of scoring plenty of goals, as we’ve seen over the course of the season, so it would be no surprise if they played out a high-scoring encounter on Saturday. Bury are averaging 1.66 expected goals for at home, while MK Dons are averaging 1.7 away. If we consider these numbers in conjunction with the fact that Bury have scored 15 in their last five at home and the fact that MK Dons have notched ten in their last five away, it’s easy to feel that a bet on ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ represents a small slice of value at the current prices.

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