Charlton vs Southend Predictions

Charlton went into last weekend’s match at Highbury Stadium off the back of a pleasing five-match unbeaten run, though they were unable to get a positive result, as they lost by a goal to nil. Now back on their own patch, the Addicks will be looking to do better.

Charlton were poor last weekend when losing by a goal to nil away at Fleetwood; despite not giving buckets away, they failed to really get going in the final third and thus deserved to be narrowly beaten. However, it’s important not to overreact to that defeat. Prior to losing at Highbury Stadium, the Addicks had been ticking along nicely, while they’ve been very useful at The Valley during the current campaign.

When last in action on home soil, Charlton were deserving winners against Accrington, while they’ve now won six of their last seven in front of a home crowd. During that time, they’ve scored 13 goals and have conceded just three at the other end. Moreover, Saturday’s hosts have bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in six of those seven, while they currently boast a pleasing average expected goal difference of +0.66.

Southend are not averse to a good performance, but unfortunately good performances have come far less often than no-shows for the Shrimpers this season. Consistency is becoming a big, big problem for Chris Powell’s men, whose goal of reaching the play-offs is becoming more and more unachievable.

Saturday’s visitors have won two of their last three on the road, but they’ve also won just two of their last seven on the road, so we shouldn’t get too excited. What’s more, the Shrimpers are starting to find it tough to match their opponents for creativity, both home and away, as they’ve bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in only two of their last six. Last time out against a relatively weak Bristol Rovers attack, Powell’s men came out second best and rightly so, given that they ended the match with an expected goal difference of -1.42. Such a performance does not bode well ahead of a match at The Valley, which has been a happy hunting ground for very few visiting teams this season.

All things considered, the Addicks are hard to avoid ahead of this match. Southend’s efforts on the road simply don’t match Charlton’s at home; the hosts have scored more goals, conceded less, average more expected goals, concede less expected goals on average and outperform the Shrimpers, who’re the fourth-worst team in League One when it comes to shots on target away from home, in terms of both shots and shots on target. Backing Charlton to regain the winning thread is the way to go.