Desportivo Aves vs Vitoria Guimaraes Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals have been produced in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two clubs.
• Aves have lost 7 of their 10 home games.
• Under 2.5 goals have been produced in 50% of Aves’ home games.
• Both teams scored in just 30% of Aves’ home games.

Aves have lost seven times at home already this season

Aves earned a 1-1 draw away at Famalicao last time out while Guimaraes narrowly lost 2-1 at home to Porto, meaning the distance between the two clubs was reduced to 15pts. Bottom of the table Aves head into Friday’s match as the form favourites with two wins, one draw, and three defeats from their last six matches but Guimaraes won their last away game 7-0 against Famalicao, so confidence is bound to be high despite that defeat to title-chasing Porto.

Three of the last four meetings between these two clubs have produced under 2.5 goals as have two of Aves’ last four matches, and we are expecting a tight and tense ninety minutes between the pair on Friday. Aves have won three and lost seven of their home games in the league, meaning they are yet to share the points in their own backyard, while Guimaraes have only lost three times on the road, picking up 11pts.

Aves average 0.90 points per home game and Guimaraes average 1.10 points per away game, which suggests that the visitors are the more likely of the two clubs to claim all 3pts on Friday. Guimaraes might not win many on the road but their last away trip produced a 7-0 victory against top-six side Famalicao, so Aves are likely to be in for a tough ninety minutes this Friday.

Half of the hosts’ home games have seen a single goal scored

Aves score an average of 1.00 goals per home game and concede 1.40 goals while Guimaraes score an average of 1.60 goals per away game and concede 1.40 goals, and we have predicted a final scoreline of 1-0 in the visitors’ favour. 50% of Aves’ home matches and Guimaraes; away matches have produced under 2.5 goals and just 30% of the hosts’ home games have seen both teams score, which adds even more weight to our prediction for under 2.5 goals and a final scoreline of 1-0.

The hosts have failed to score in half of their home games in the Primeira Liga while Guimaraes have kept clean sheets in 20% of their away trips and have only failed to score in 30%. Exactly 1-goal has been scored in 50% of Aves’ home games and a majority of Aves’s defeats this season (13) have been via a 1-goal margin.

We’re confident that under 2.5 goals will be produced in Friday’s match and we have predicted a final scoreline of 1-0 in favour of Vitoria Guimaraes. The visitors might not be the form favourites but they have outplayed Aves in most departments so far this season and head into Friday’s clash on the back of a massive win in their last away game.