FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Monchengladbach Predictions

FSV Mainz 05 have started their 19/20 campaign in the worst possible way. Not only has Sandro Schwarz seen his side knocked out of the DFB Pokal first round in a 2-0 defeat away to third-tier Kaiserslautern, but he then also had to endure a 3-0 defeat at Freiburg last weekend, where they were the better side for large spells of the game.

Forwards Robin Quaison and Karim Onisiwo are likely to begin in attack once more given the ongoing absences of French striker Mateta – who scored a club-high 14 Bundesliga goals last season – and Dong-won Ji. Mainz have personnel issues at the other end of the pitch too, with veteran centre-backs Stefan Bell and newly signed Jeremiah St. Juste both ruled out.

Borussia Monchengladbach coach Marco Rose has stated he was satisfied with his team’s defensive display in their 0-0 draw at home to Schalke in their opening Bundesliga game, but there’s still much more work to be done before they are fully adapted to his playing style. Rose’s former side, Red Bull Salzburg, were well-known for their attacking football.

To that end, the absence of captain Lars Stindl and winger Jonas Hoffman don’t help. Forward Alassane Plea is the only player of the front three – alongside Breel Embolo and Marcus Thuram, son of former World champion Lilian – that has prior link-up play with the midfield from last season.

With a lot of unknowns going into this game, it’s hard to know what to truly expect. One thing that is likely though, is that it will be a tougher day out for Mainz than it will be for Gladbach. Borussia Monchengladbach are unbeaten in each of their last six Bundesliga meetings with Mainz (W4 D2).

Notably, neither side was able to get on the scoresheet last weekend, with Mainz recording one of the lowest expected goals (xG) totals in the Bundesliga in matchday one. That doesn’t bode well for them ahead of Saturday given that they’ve failed to score in each of their last three Bundesliga games against Gladbach too (0-0, 4-0, 1-0).

Going off this, we like this to be low scoring and backing ‘under 2.5 goals’ should be a solid bet – that would have been a winning selection in three of the last six meetings between them too. And with Gladbach winning five of their last eight Bundesliga away matches (D1 L2), conceding just five in the process, we fancy them to come out ahead as well. Our prediction: a 1-0 Gladbach.