FSV Mainz 05 vs Hannover 96 Predictions

November saw Mainz make a massive turnaround in form. Three wins from four (W3 L1) – you can forgive a tight 2-1 defeat to league leaders Borussia Dortmund – has seen them rocket up the Bundesliga table and they are in the bottom half on goal difference alone before the weekend. The 05ers seem to have addressed their “goal problem”, though they do remain one of the lowest scoring sides in the division – the 05ers have only managed 12 goals in 13 league games. Striker Jean-Philippe Mateta, who signed from Le Havre over the summer, finally looks settled in to the change of style of the German top flight, and his three goals over their last four games have been key to their form.

Opponents Hannover head into this with the exact opposite record to that of Mainz, losing three of their last four Bundesliga matches (W1 L3) – in fact, the North Germans have lost five of their last six across all competitions. Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat at home to Hertha Berlin was a result that saw them sink into the automatic relegation places, and a number of injuries to the first team lineup continues to do coach Andre Breitenreiter no favours. The return of star forward Niclas Fullkrug from injury was expected to give Hannover a boost – he was the third highest scoring player in the Bundesliga last season (14 goals) – but he remains goalless since September.

Despite Hannover’s lack of form, their style of play should have an influence on the outcome of this match. Breitenreiter’s side have one of the worst defensive records in the Bundesliga – 28 goals conceded, an average of just over two goals per game – but they also hold one of the better offences in the bottom half too – a good starter for goals at both ends. Mainz’s newfound attacking form should be enough to find the back of the net against a side that has kept no clean sheets on the road so far – Mateta looks a shout to do just that – and a closer look at the numbers shows the visitors true problem – Hannover are on a 23-game wait for a clean sheet on the road in the Bundesliga, conceding two goals or more in five of their last six such games too.

However, Hannover’s attacking record, failing to score in just one of their last nine in the league, should see there be value in them getting a goal against a Mainz defence with just one clean sheet in their last six league outings. Only Dortmund and Leipzig have conceded fewer in the league than Mainz though, so you’d have to be optimistic to see them getting more than one. And with Hannover having conceded a whopping 19 goals over their seven away matches in 2018/19, an average of almost 3 goals per game, we feel that Mainz should be capable of getting a few. Mainz are ultimately the side that will feel that this is the greater opportunity to get three points, and with a strong home record to back that up too (W3 D2 L2), they should get the result. Our prediction: 2-1 Mainz.