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Greece vs Estonia Predictions

  • 19:45
  • Expired
  • A. Le Coq Arena
Greece
Estonia

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Having lost away against Hungary on Thursday evening, the Estonians will be hoping to bounce back, though their recent away record doesn’t exactly suggest that they’ll suddenly turn things around. In contrast, the Greeks will be hoping to secure back-to-back victories for the first time since late 2017, while they’ll also be looking to do the double over Estonia having won the reverse fixture back in September.

Greece did take all three points when they hosted Finland on Thursday night, though their performances wasn’t the most taking. They just about did more than their visitors, who looked very tame in the offensive third, though to say that they were convincing winners would be a lie. Some of Greece’s other performances in this competition haven’t been too impressive either, though they have looked reasonably useful at the back, while they were somewhat better than Estonia in the reverse fixture.

When the teams met in Estonia, it was the Greeks who dominated; they came under little pressure at the back, while they had more about them in the final third, as the fact that they ended the game with an expected goal supremacy of +0.45 shows. A similar showing on their own patch would surely be enough to see the Greeks record another victory.

Overall, Estonia haven’t played too badly in League C, but they’ve ultimately been blighted by a lack of forward quality. Martin Reim’s men have scored in just one of their five Nations League matches, while they’re yet to score on their travels.

The Estonians have failed to score in both of their away matches in League C and it’s easy to see why when we discover that they’re averaging just 0.31 expected goals for on their travels. Creativity is a real problem for the visitors, while they also struggled massively to get into dangerous areas against Hungary last time out. When they faced Finland away, the expected goals figures were 1.34 (Finland) – 0.51 (Estonia), while things got even worse when they faced Hungary last time out, as the Estonians clocked just 0.11 and gave up 1.6.

In all honesty, the Greeks are very difficult to oppose against a side that has offered next to nothing going forward when playing on the road, though backing the hosts to simply come out on top is not the way to go. Instead, ‘Greece to Win & Under 2.5 Goals’ stands out. Greece haven’t offered much going forward overall, while they only outperformed the Estonians by 0.45 expected goals in the reverse fixture, so expecting the hosts to do anything other than win narrowly (even if it is comfortable) may be foolish.

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