Guangzhou Evergrande vs Hebei CFFC Predictions

Despite being behind their title rivals by five points, it’s been a fine campaign for Guangzhou Evergrande, who’ve really started to come into their own over the last month or so. Fabio Cannavaro’s men come into this match having won each of their last seven in all competitions, so confidence is likely to be sky-high in the home camp. Hebei will also be feeling good after their latest win, though they’ve got a very tough task ahead of them.

They’ve certainly not been poor on the road, winning five out of six, though at home is where Evergrande are immensely tough to face. Saturday’s hosts have only lost once in front of their own fans this season and that defeat came against the imperious league leaders. Cannavaro’s men have won five of their other six fixtures at home, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three in the process.

Scoring goals and conceding as few as possible is one thing, but posting promising underlying numbers is the key, as such numbers tell us whether Evergrande’s form is sustainable or not. Fortunately for Saturday’s hosts, their numbers are pleasing, as they’ve posted an average of 1.33 expected goals for, while they’ve shipped an average of 0.77.

In contrast, Hebei’s underlying numbers away from home are somewhat discouraging. Saturday’s visitors have conceded an average of 1.31 expected goals, which isn’t horrendous, though it’s far from pleasing when they’re averaging only 1.0 at the other end. Hebei have also struggled to get the ball in the net on their travels, as they’ve scored an average of just 0.86 goals. They’re also surrendering a worrying average of 1.71, so it’s no surprise to see that they’ve kept just one clean sheet on the road this season.

In the betting, Guangzhou Evergrande -1 Handicap’ catches the eye. Not only have the visitors been conceding plenty and created little on their travels, losing two of their last three away games by a margin of two, but some of the hosts performances against other weak sides suggests that they’re a tad overpriced in the handicap market.

Scorers of 1.57 goals on average, Guangzhou, who’ve shipped an average of only 0.57 at home, recorded comfortable wins (without conceding) against the likes of Guangzhou R&F, Tianjin Teda and Tianjn Tianhai, and such performances point towards them easily taking care of a travelling side that has struggled in all areas away from home.