Hamburg vs Werder Bremen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Hamburg are still without a win after 11 matches (D3 L8) – the “ever-present” Bundesliga side’s worst ever start to a new campaign – and remained bottom of the table, despite taking away a decent 2-2 draw away from the unbeaten Hoffenheim last Sunday. Before that, back-to-back defeats against Dortmund, Cologne and Eintracht Frankfurt has seen Hamburg left frustrated and it has showed. Striker Bobby Wood, who has scored a third of Hamburg’s meager six goals so far, is unavailable for selection here in the “North Derby” thanks to the straight red and three match ban he received from elbowing Cologne’s Dominique Heintz a few matches back.

Meanwhile, Werder Bremen’s 2-1 defeat at home to Eintracht Frankfurt last Sunday saw them remain in the relegation playoff spot and become the joint most out-of-form side in the Bundesliga, with four defeats in their last five (W1 L4). Bremen hit a spell of decent form (W2 D1 against Wolfsburg, Darmstadt and Leverkusen) after (then) interim coach Alexander Nouri handed starts to several players from the under-23’s. However, the North Germans have continued to struggle at the back due to varying injuries resulting in an inconsistent defensive lineup (see team news).

Though Hamburg are the bookies’ favourites ahead of this match at 5/4, trends show that Bremen’s aggressive style of football makes goals the safe bet. Bremen produce entertaining matches for both fans and neutrals alike and over 2.5 goals and both teams to score has landed in 10 of Werder Bremen’s 11 Bundesliga matches so far this season (91%). With Hamburg starting to find some scoring form – Hamburg have scored exactly two goals in their last two matches against Dortmund (5-2 defeat) and Hoffenheim (2-2 draw) – and Werder Bremen without a clean sheet so far this season, we feel that 10/11 is still a decent price for a bet in this market.

Notably, while both sides are hugely out-of-form, both Bremen and Hamburg have had to endure a tough set of fixtures. Bremen’s four consecutive defeats have come at the hands of sides such as league leaders RB Leipzig and the in-form Schalke 04. Similarly, Hamburg have played just one bottom half side in their last seven fixtures, with defeats against Borussia Dortmund, Cologne and Bayern Munich to name just a few.

Though we feel this match is set to have plenty of goals as a result of general sloppy defensive work, it’s hard to really see a clear winner. Historic trends do, however, show that the home side has more often than not had the edge in the North Derby (see head-2-head). As such, we fancy the home side to nip it and that makes Hamburg to win 2-1 at 8/1 with bet365 a reasonable shout here.