Independiente vs Alianza Lima Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Argentine giants Independiente have had to settle for just a Sudamericana appearance this year, after narrowly missing out on the Libertadores. They are be no means strangers to this competition, having competed in the last two editions and lifted the trophy in 2010. Last year they went out in the last 16, a poor result by their standards, and they will be hoping for a vast improvement this time around.

The club is experiencing  a real period of change under new boss Ariel Holan. The ex Defensa y Justicia manager has a distinctive, easy on the eye style of play but it is taking a while for the players to adjust to his methods. Fans of the club are extremely frustrated at the moment, not so much with Holan but certainly with the board and the sides’ players. Raised tensions were hardly aided by an embarrassing 3-0 defeat to arch rivals Racing over pre-season. For now Holan has the support of the fanbase, but if he doesn’t swiftly improve their 13th placed standing n the league and put on a decent show in the Sudamericana they could soon turn. Holan has overseen just two competitive games, both resulting in rather disappointing home draws to San Martin and Velez respectively.

22 time Peruvian champion Alianza Lima make their return to continental action after a two year absence. The last few years have been far from happy, with the side performing at a far lower level than generations of fans had become accustomed to. They now haven’t won the title in over a decade. To put that into a context, it would be the equivalent of Real Madrid or Barcelona going 10 years without a league win, such is the stature of the side in Peru.

Their start to the Summer phase of the league has been a good one, and they are well in the race for the first Libertadores spot up for grabs. They have lost just 1 of 7 games contested, picking up 3 wins in the process. Alianza will also come into this tie fresh, given their game over the weekend was postponed so they could concentrate on continental efforts.

Independiente are the undoubted favourites here but are still adapting to the new boss’ methods. They were the better side in the weekend’s draw with Velez but are still waiting for the first win under Holan. El Rojo will be hungry to pick that up here, and given the vast disparity between Argentine football and Peruvian, it really should happen.

Alianza will come to the Argentine capital with a defensive mindset, looking to remain in the tie ahead of the second leg. That put together with the fact Independiente are far from fully functioning now leads us to find value in a low scoring home win. Back the hosts to win by 2 goals to nil.