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Luton Town vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • Kenilworth Road
Luton
Plymouth Argyle

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

Luton enhanced what was already an impressive home record by beating Wycombe in the FA Cup at this venue last Saturday and they’ll now be looking for another win. Nathan Jones’ men have been extremely hard to face in front of their own fans, winning each of their last five at Kenilworth Road, so confidence is unlikely to be a problem for the hosts.

Of the four teams to come up from League Two, Luton were the side expected to really thrive at this level, and as they currently sit in 5th position, the Hatters haven’t disappointed. Both Accrington and Coventry have also done very well, but it is Nathan Jones’ men who, at this moment in time, are doing the best out of the four promoted sides.

Not only are the Hatters sat inside the coveted play-off places, but they’re the team with the best home form in this division. Despite playing a game less than many of the other League One teams, Luton have accumulated more points on home soil than anyone else, while they’ve also scored more goals at home than any other side at this level.

When playing at home, the Hatters have imposed themselves from an attacking point of view, while despite not being infallible at the back, they’ve done more than enough to collect regular points. Nathan Jones’ men are averaging 1.81 expected goals for at home, while they’re shipping 1.24 at the other end, which suggests that they’re not easy to topple at Kenilworth Road.

While Luton have been thriving on home soil, Plymouth have had a tough time of it on their travels this season. Derek Adam’s men have won just one of their eight away games, while they’ve conceded 12 goals and have scored just seven in reply. Conceding 12 goals in eight matches isn’t great, but it’s far less than Plymouth deserve. Sometimes teams can be conceding goals somewhat unluckily, but that’s not been the case for the Pilgrims on their travels, as they’re averaging 2.6 expected goals against when playing away from the comforts of the home.

This week, Pilgrims’ boss Derek Adams’ said that Plymouth need to be judged at the end of the season and not now, and in all honesty, he’s probably right. However, based on what we’ve seen from both them and Luton so far this season, it’s impossible to make a case for the visitors, who’ve simply given too much away to be considered contenders at Kenilworth Road on Saturday.

With the visitors giving up an average of 2.6 expected goals on their travels, the hosts, who’re very astute going forward, are backed to record a routine victory.

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