Malaga vs Real Oviedo Predictions

Having dropped out of La Liga last season, Malaga would’ve been hoping to challenge for automatic promotion, though with just five games remaining, the play-offs are their only hope. As things stand, Juan Ramón López Muñiz’s men are currently outside of the top six, but only a point separates them and the final play-off place, so there’s still a very real chance of them returning to the top level.

Malaga are still in with a solid chance of reaching the play-offs; they’re only a point behind Depor with five games to play, but they need to improve if they’re to achieve their goal. Monday’s hosts come into this fixture having won just one of their last six matches, while they’re now without a win in seven at home. Such form just won’t do if Muñiz’s are serious about going up.

In fact, if the hosts had been a bit better on their own patch this season, then their place in the top six would probably already be guaranteed by now. Having lost just five times and having conceded just 13 goals at La Rosaleda, Malaga have been by no means easy to beat on their own patch, but they have found it tough to come out on top, winning only half of their home matches. The hosts haven’t exactly been menacing in terms of attacking play at home either, as they’ve scored an average of just 1.05 goals, while their average of only 1.06 expected goals for isn’t great either.

Like Monday’s hosts, Oviedo have been tough to beat on the road, but they too have struggled to be really dangerous in the final third. The visitors come into this match with the fifth-best away record in the division, while they’ve won each of their last two travelling matches, both of which without conceding.

However, while they’ve won each of their last two on the road, Oviedo have found goals hard to come by away from home this season, as they’ve notched just 17 in 18. Only one top-half team has scored less away goals than Oviedo, who’ve scored in only two of their last five away games. Unsurprisingly, Monday’s visitors have scored more than once in just four of their travelling matches this season, and they’ve not scored twice since notching twice away against Extremadura back in January.

In what should be a reasonably tight, tense affair, the bet that stands out at the prices is ‘Malaga to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. Given that the pair are separated by just two points, there’s probably not a great deal between the pair, though Malaga have been slightly more impressive at home than Oviedo have on the road. The hosts won’t run away with it, but when we consider the respective home and away performances of both, especially the fact that Malaga have both scored more and conceded less on average at home, the chances of a low-scoring home win are slightly greater than the current prices suggest.