Nottingham Forest vs Wolverhampton Predictions

• Wolves have lost three of their last four games
• The visitors have lost 11 of their last 18 league trips
• Nottingham Forest have claimed 77% of their points this season at home
• Forest have lost only twice at home to sides outside the top five

Troubling times for Wolves

Making the move for Julen Lopetegui looked to have boosted Wolves’ survival hopes, but they have hit troubled times in recent weeks and return to action battling for their top-flight status.

Wolves have lost three of their last four Premier League games, as many as they had in their first nine under Lopetegui’s watch. The new manager bounce does away to be gone, while their away woes have lingered throughout the campaign.

Wolves have won just two of their last 18 away games in the Premier League, losing 11 times. Those two wins have come at Everton and Southampton, catching out two struggling sides at a low point. While Forest are also in the relegation mire, they’re a much tougher prospect at the City Ground.

Home comforts for Forest & Johnson

Forest are outside of the bottom three right now thanks to their home form, with 77% of their points this term coming at the City Ground. They’re also substantially better both defensively and in front of goal at home, scoring 82% of their league goals at their own ground, while conceding just 35% of their total.

Forest did see their recent unbeaten run at home ended by a late Newcastle winner, but they’ve still got a home record which is just shy of high-flying Fulham. If you remove results against the current top five, Forest’s home record is five wins, four draws and just two defeats.

Forest’s record should see them edge what is likely to be a tight clash. The hosts have managed to score in 93% of their home games this term and that should see them get the better of goal-shy Wolves, so back them with the draw as an insurance policy.

The hosts have an advantage thanks to Brennan Johnson’s form at home and his quality is something they routinely try to exploit. They’ve tried to set him up on almost half of his 473 off-the-ball runs this term, while he’s scored six times across 13 home starts in the league this season.

Close counter at the City Ground

All evidence points to this clash being far from a classic. No Premier League side has scored fewer goals than either of these two sides so far this season, with the pair scoring just 22 times. On top of that, Forest have had fewer shots on target than anyone else in the division this term, while Wolves have the worst shot conversion rate in the division.

The visitors have conceded in 93% of their trips and they meet a Forest side who have managed four 1-0 wins at home this season. Given that Wolves have lost to nil on five occasions on their travels, back the hosts to produce another narrow win to boost their chances of staying up.

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