SV Darmstadt vs Hamburg Predictions

Hamburg have hit their first rough patch since beginning life outside the German top flight. Sunday’s 0-0 draw at home to St Pauli in the huge Hamburg derby did little to ease the pain that was the 5-0 defeat against Jahn Regensburg the weekend before that, a result that brought an end to a run of five consecutive wins across all competitions. New boss Christian Titz, who was promoted from his position as manager of Hamburg II (reserves) over the summer, has, however, been getting the most out of his new signings (see team news) and, most importantly, Hamburg are yet to have the wind taken out of their sails in the same way as last season. The North Germans have looked the better side in almost every game since their drop down to the Bundesliga 2 and coach Titz will no doubt be hoping for a revival of form in a trip to Darmstadt on Friday.

Darmstadt are in a similar situation to Hamburg having dropped down from the German top flight just over a year ago. Unfortunately for them, promotion back up to the Bundesliga looks a much harder ask. Darmstadt’s 4-2 defeat away to Holstein Kiel last Friday was not only their third consecutive defeat, a result which saw them fall down to 13th in the table, but it was also the second time in around a week that the Hesse-based side had conceded four goals in one match. What’s even worse is that Darmstadt’s four match winless streak has come against opponents that were sat in the bottom half of the table at the time. Upcoming fixtures against fourth-placed Hamburg, fifth-placed Jahn Regensburg and third-placed Greuther Furth in the coming weeks will make things even tougher for coach Dirk Schuster.

So, what do we like betting-wise here? Well, out of both teams, you have to like the look of Hamburg to get a result here, and backing them ‘Draw No Bet’ looks the way to go – that is, if Hamburg win, the bet wins, but if Hamburg draw, the bet is void. Firstly, the North Germans’ transition into the second tier has been very positive overall, something that has been no doubt helped by them managing to keep hold of some of the club’s bigger names. Midfielders Lewis Holtby and Aaron Hunt as well as forward Pierre-Michel Lasogga, now back from a spell at Leeds, are some such players. Lasogga has scored a solid five goals in the league so far (one hat-trick and a brace), and he’s expected to take the lone role up front after a relatively ineffective display from youngster Jann-Fiete Arp last weekend. Names like these far outweigh the talent that Darmstadt have in their squad and the phrase ‘the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts’ isn’t one that comes to mind when watching them.

Hamburg have also won in 9 of their last 15 matches across all competitions (W9 D2 L4), and even though they’ve failed to score in each of their last three outings, it’s hard to see such a trend continuing against a Darmstadt defense that has conceded a massive 10 goals over their last three Bundesliga 2 outings. Hamburg’s attacking talents on their day are exactly the sort of players that have the ability to put huge pressure on the hosts’ poor defensive record – Darmstadt now hold the joint 5th worst defensive record in the Bundesliga 2 (13 goals conceded, an average of just under 2 goals per game) – and with the travelling side winning in three of the last four meetings between them (see head-to-head) the ball looks to be in Hamburg’s court. Our prediction: 2-1 Hamburg.