Udinese vs Parma Predictions

Last weekend brought huge relief for Udinese, as they claimed a 1-0 victory over Italian giants AC Milan. It was a great start to the season for the Zebrette, but Parma weren’t so lucky. They were easily dispatched at home to Juventus, while they now head on the road looking for their first points of the season. We’ve delved into the Expected Goals stats, which point to another disappointing game for the Crociati.

Udinese lost just once at home to the sides below them last term, while they needed their form at the Dacia Arena to keep them safe. They claimed 67% of their total points last term at their own ground, which was boosted by an eight-game unbeaten run which brought five wins. Their victory on Sunday made it nine without defeat here for Udinese. To make that run even more impressive, Udinese have managed to consistently overperform their Expected Goals stats – a tool for measuring the quality of shots both taken and faced. They’ll be hoping to continue that in this weekend’s game.

Last season Parma had one of the worst xG against tallies on the road across Serie A. They conceded 34.88 Expected Goals in away matches, which actually came in below the 36 goals they shipped in 19 trips. That left them having let in an average of 1.89 goals per game on their travels, which massively contributed to a poor away record for Parma. Overall they finished the season with 10 defeats in 19 away trips, while they failed to win any of their last nine games, conceding 22 times across those clashes.

In their final nine games, Parma created enough chances to carve out a score of 8.8 xG. When you compare that quantity of chances to the 22 goals they conceded, it is no wonder that they ended that run of matches averaging less than 0.5 points per game. Their chances of a turnaround aren’t looking good based on the numbers from the opening weekend, which saw Parma get lucky by only conceding once to Juve despite conceding plenty of chances, while the Crociati recorded an xG of just 0.26 going forward.

We can see positives for Udinese in last weekend’s xG numbers, with the Zebrette restricting AC Milan to an xG of 0.63 and just one shot on target, which is impressive given that the Rossoneri started with two forward and a number 10 in attack. Meanwhile, Udinese finished May with the third-best form for the month, winning three of their final four games. With four wins on the spin now in the league, they should see off a leaky Parma team.