USA vs Belgium Predictions

• Belgium are unbeaten in 16 matches
• The Red Devils have scored 22 goals in eight matches, after netting 29 goals in qualifying
• The USA are without Folarin Balogun, their only player to total more than 0.95 xG across the tournament
• Belgium won 5-2 when these two sides met in March

Balogun blow for hosts

Folarin Balogun’s red card against Bosnia was a hammer blow for the United States, who had looked capable of a deep run as co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup.

Balogun scored his third goal of the tournament in that last 32 tie, and he’s been a revelation for the US so far. However, they’re heavily reliant on him, as the Monaco forward is the only player in their squad to generate more than 0.95 xG across the entire tournament.

For all the focus on Christian Pulisic’s fitness, the USA need Balogun to bring everything together up front. They don’t have another finisher like him, and in a clash with an open Belgium side, missing their top scorer could cost them a place in the quarter-finals.

Lucky escape for Belgium

The Red Devils are fortunate to still be in this competition, after falling 2-0 down to Senegal in the last round. The Belgians opened the tournament with draws against Egypt and Iran, and there was some expectation that their 5-1 win over New Zealand signified their arrival at the tournament at long last.

However, Belgium made a slow start against the Senegalese, who generated 1.83 Expected Goals within the first 45 minutes of their clash in Seattle. The Red Devils scored in the 86th and 89th minutes to force extra time, before a 125th-minute penalty took them through.

Rudi Garcia’s side won’t threaten the elite sides at this tournament, but luck has broken their way again with Balogun’s dismissal.

Toughest test so far for Pochettino’s side

The US have built up plenty of momentum at this tournament, but the sides they’ve beaten, Paraguay, Australia, and Bosnia, don’t match up to Belgium’s level.

We can largely disregard the USA’s 3-2 loss to an already-eliminated Turkey side, but that wasn’t even as big a test as this last 16 tie.

Belgium haven’t lost across their last 16 internationals, which includes a 5-2 win at an experimental USA side back in March. The Red Devils followed up scoring 29 times in qualifying by netting 22 times in eight games in 2026, and that attacking edge could be decisive with Balogun out.

Take the Belgians to qualify, with Kevin De Bruyne standing out in the scoring markets. The Napoli midfielder has scored eight times across his last 13 internationals, and he leads all Belgian players with 18 attempts in four games at this tournament.