Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Werder Bremen found themselves on the cusp of the relegation zone after starting the new year with four consecutive defeats – a record last seen at Werder in 1980 – but the North Germans have more than made amends as the year has gone on. Werder’s 2-2 draw on the road to European candidates Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend sees them now unbeaten in eight in the Bundesliga (W6 D2) and their 36 point total is more than enough to see them comfortably above automatic relegation.

Escape artists Hamburg still have some work to do to navigate themselves away from the murky waters at the foot of the Bundesliga. Despite taking 20 points from their last ten league outings (W6 D2 L2), Markus Gisdol’s side remain uncomfortably close to the relegation zone – Hamburg are just 4 points above the relegation play-off position and just 5 points above automatic relegation. Hamburg’s momentum has, however, prominently been propelled by their performances at home, so the North German derby should prove an intimidating affair for the HSV on Sunday.

Werder Bremen are the favourites here at 5/4 with bet365, but we feel that “over 2.5 goals” at 3/4 is the safest bet here for the following reasons: first and foremost, the statistics alone make this a profitable endeavor as Werder Bremen’s and Hamburg’s matches rarely tend to be dull affairs. Not only have over 2.5 goals been scored in 79% of Werder Bremen’s matches at the Weserstadion, but 57% of Hamburg’s matches on the road – including four of their last five – have also seen three goals or more scored.

In terms of who’s been producing goals, Bremen’s newfound form can, in part, be credited to the return of second top scorer Max Kruse (8 goals in 17 appearances) from injury. Kruse has four goals to his name over Bremen’s last five outings and is a top price to score anytime at 13/8 with bet365. Werder’s top scorer, Serge Gnabry, could also make a return this weekend (see team news), which would only further the hosts’ chances for goals.

Regarding a correct score bet, though Hamburg’s scoring form on the road is far from stellar, Bremen have failed to keep a clean sheet in 79% of their matches at home. Hence, the visitors should fancy their chances to take a goal under the high pressure conditions of a derby fixture. Werder Bremen’s strong form and home advantage should ultimately prove too much for Hamburg and, as such, a Werder Bremen 2-1 win at 8/1 with bet365 is a decent shout here.