Violent Night: 83/1 cards & fouls bet builder for Chelsea vs Villa

Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
Christmas spirit could be in short supply at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, when the Blues host an in-form Aston Villa side. The pair have drawn the most fouls in the Premier League, with Chelsea second on 215, and Villa way out in front with 244.
Villa have also drawn the most yellow cards across the division, with 41. Given that Chelsea are third in total cards shown and fourth in cards drawn, this could be another busy game for referee Stuart Attwell.
Attwell’s matches this term average 21 fouls a game, while he’s dished out close to five bookings per match. With that in mind, cards and fouls are the focus of this 83/1 fivefold.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Ultimate Bet Builder
Moises Caicedo to be carded
Caicedo recently returned from a three-game suspension, but that hasn’t slowed him down on the cards front. The midfielder has been shown a card in six of his last nine appearances, including three of his last four.
Caicedo has been booked in both of his games since returning from suspension, so he’s a worth leader in the card betting ahead of Saturday’s clash. After all, Villa midfielders John McGinn, Boubacar Kamara, and Youri Tielemans lead the club in fouls drawn with a combined total of 76.
Matty Cash to be carded
Cash is a booking away from a suspension in the Premier League, having been cautioned four times in 17 appearances. The Polish full-back has also been booked twice in the Europa League, while he’s been shown a yellow in two of his last three outings.
Chelsea have plenty of options to play against him down the left, including Alejandro Garnacho. The Argentine was fouled twice at Newcastle last weekend, while he has been fouled 20 times despite making only 11 starts this term.
Chelsea’s most fouled player, Joao Pedro, will drift out to the left from centre-forward, while Marc Cucurella won’t hesitate to push forward. Cash has made the joint-most fouls for Villa this term, so back him to pick up a card.
Youri Tielemans to be fouled 3+ times
Tielemans has been fouled four times in a game on three occasions across his last five league starts. That includes recent clashes with West Ham and Manchester United, with the Belgian operating in a slightly more advanced role than he was to start the season.
That positional change means Tielemans will be directly up against Caicedo, Fernandez, and Chelsea’s roving full-backs. He should come under a lot of pressure when he gets on the ball, and he tends to have more possession away from home than at Villa Park.
Enzo Fernandez to make 2+ fouls
Villa’s impressive record at drawing fouls should cause problems for Enzo Fernandez. The Argentine isn’t getting booked at the same rate as last term, but he’s made at least two fouls in each of his last four appearances.
The Argentine has been booked in three of his six clashes with Villa, so back him to commit a couple of fouls on Saturday.
Morgan Rogers to make 2+ fouls
Morgan Rogers is level with Cash with 21 fouls in the league this term, and the winger faces a difficult job covering the forward runs of Reece James or Malo Gusto.
Rogers has made at least two fouls in six of his last eight across all competitions, while he’s committed 12 fouls in his last six Premier League games.
Given the rate at which the Blues draw fouls, particularly down the right, back Rogers to make at least two fouls.
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