Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
With all of the top scorers from last season bound for the Premier League, the golden boot race in 2019/20 is an open one. Teemu Pukki was the surprise winner, finishing up with 29 goals – four clear of the rest of the league. The Finn showed just how a player can come from anywhere to top the scoring charts as he fired Norwich to promotion.
That should inspire plenty of sharpshooters in the Championship this season. With no clear favourite in the race, we’re left with plenty of interesting options. We’re taking a look through the recent golden boot trends as well as naming our picks for the top goalscorer outright betting market.
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Championship Top Goalscorer Key Trends
It’s no great surprise that teams with high scoring forwards tend to do well. Having a clinical finisher is obviously a boost to any team, but the strikers need the right support system behind them. We rarely see forwards doing it all on their own in the modern game.
That’s especially true of the Championship, where the tally needed to take the Golden Boot is at least 25 goals. In fact, four of the last six seasons have seen the top scorer rack up at least 27 goals in total, while Pukki nearly hit 30 last term. The Finn did that thanks to clicking within the club’s overall style, benefitting from the Canaries’ talented, creative midfield.
Norwich were the latest club to benefit from the league’s top scorer, as four of the last five winners of the golden boot have helped their side to a top-six finish. While their goals help, the clubs tend to have enough talent around the pitch to make a sustained promotion push.
We need to consider more than just the forwards when it comes to picking out a potential top scorer. For instance, last season all of the top five scorers played for teams who like to play on the front foot. End of season analysis showed that they all played for clubs who preferred a patient, passing style.
We need key players for sides who have top-six ambitions while playing with an open style. The forwards need a solid track record, along with plenty of support from midfield. Those elements should factor into this season’s golden boot winner.
Check when the rest of our outright betting tips are coming on our 2019/20 Season Outright Predictions Schedule
Aleksandar Mitrovic at 6/1 (Fulham)
The current favourite in this market is Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Serbian joined for £22million last summer, but only after helping Fulham to win promotion while on loan in 2018. He scored 12 times in 18 starts in the Championship for Fulham. His 11 goals haul in the top flight last season wasn’t bad, either.
Mitrovic will now be central to their promotion campaign. Not only does he have experience at this level, but the striker is one of the few remaining big signings that Fulham made. He’s got more than enough talent to terrorise defences, which has seen him priced up at 6/1 with bet365 to top the scoring charts in the Championship this season.
Despite their struggles, Fulham still operated with a patient, passing approach going forward in the Premier League last term. They’re coming down in the mould of West Brom, with similarities in approach, in their manager and the manner of their relegation. Last season the Baggies had two of the Championship’s highest scorers, so that comparison should bode well for Mitrovic. However, the Serbian is talented enough to blaze his own trail and we think he’ll be a force in the second tier this term.
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Karlan Ahearne-Grant at 16/1 (Huddersfield)
Our second pick in the top scorer race is Huddersfield’s Karlan Grant. The forward is just 21-years-old, but he’s already built up plenty of experience. Grant is the youngest player to score in all four tiers from League Two upwards. He joined the Terriers in January, finishing the season as part of the first team as Huddersfield prepared for relegation. Even in the top flight he looked dangerous, possessing all the abilities he needs to worry defences in the second tier.
Grant played well enough to establish himself as the first choice at the John Smith’s Stadium. Huddersfield haven’t gone in for a new forward to lead their promotion charge, they’re trusting Grant to extend his great start in preseason. They play a good brand of football, supporting Grant as the lone-striker. That means the forward will get the chances, while he has the ability to finish them. He has all the ingredients to fight for the golden boot, while he seems like a great value pick at 16/1 with bet365.
Long Shot Pick – Mohamed Said Benrahma at 50/1 (Brentford)
Our final pick in this market is an outside option, as we’re backing Brentford winger Said Benrahma. We’ve already highlighted the Bees in our Championship Promotion Predictions, but their high scoring style means that Benrahma is in the picture here. Last term the Bees were able to turn Neal Maupay from a figure of frustration into a goal machine. Surely they can work with the Algerian winger’s massive potential?
Benrahma was the top assist maker in league last term, while he bagged 10 goals of his own. His second season in the Championship should bring more success from the Algerian, so we see him having a big campaign. However, he’s very much an outsider for the golden boot; despite ticking many of the categories we’re looking for in a high scorer.
Brentford refused to allow Benrahma to leave this summer, despite fielding offers for other players. He’s been chased by top-flight clubs already, while the Bees want to build this attacking side around him. That makes him a great option at 50/1 with BetVictor, who are paying four places each-way.
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