Born in the south east of Ireland, Simon put his life-long love of football to good use when he started a successful independent blog in 2010. That opened up an alternative route to a career in journalism, and having had work published across a number of sites and publications, Simon joined the staff at Spotlight Sports Group in 2018.
In a fixture that could have a huge impact on developments at either end of the Premier League table, relegation candidates Newcastle United take on title chasing Manchester City at St. James’ Park on Tuesday night.
The Magpies have been stuttering along a low flight path for the majority of the season, and even though Newcastle recorded their biggest win of the campaign against Cardiff in their last Premier League outing, fears over a drop back into the Championship haven’t been allayed.
There will be little sympathy in the City camp about their host’s plight however. The Citizens have won their last 7 matches in all competitions, but they know that even a slight slip from perfection could see the 4-point gap between them and Liverpool at the summit of the table widen.
With so much at stake at St. James’ Park, Tuesday’s fixture is an ideal contest to find some potentially lucrative selections from the bookmakers’ individual player markets and specials.
Take a look at our selections below.
Sergio Aguero under 3.5 shots – 10/11
The indomitable goalscoring machine Sergio Aguero has been in typically electric form for Manchester City this season. The diminutive Argentinean has scored 10 goals in just 17 Premier League starts for the champions, and Aguero has hit the net 4 times in his last 6.
Aguero’s average of 3.6 shots per game in the Premier League is one of the most impressive statistics in the division in 2018/19, though it’s worth noting that his average slips back to 2.9 when you look at his away appearances only.
Against Newcastle this week, Aguero will come up against a home defence drilled and re-drilled by the tactically astute Rafa Benitez. The Magpies have been turned over by the vast majority of the league’s better teams at St. James’ Park this season, though the margin of defeat has routinely been slim.
Newcastle lost 2-1 at home to Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal, while they were turned over 2-0 more recently by Man Utd on their own patch.
With the Magpies expected to dig in just as deeply against Manchester City this week, Aguero’s attempts on goal should be more limited than usual. For that reason, Aguero to have under 3.5 shots at 10/11 with bet365 looks a fantastic price.
Fernandinho under 94.5 passes – 5/6
Although Manchester City’s holding midfielder Fernandinho is more than a competent passer, his real talents lie in possession recovery rather than possession recycling.
The numbers seem to back that assertation up too. Fernandinho has played an average of 76.1 passes per game for Manchester City in the Premier League this season, which is an admirably high figure, but it still falls well below our bet selection’s target number.
In fact, in Fernandinho’s 21 Premier League starts this season, he has played over 94.5 in a game on just 5 separate occasions, and 4 of those matches were at the Etihad in contests City dominated from the outset.
When you evaluate his influence on possession in league fixtures away from the Etihad, Fernandinho’s average passing figure drops to a much lower 68.2 per game.
Digesting the numbers, Fernandinho to have under 94.5 passes for City at St. James’ Park on Tuesday is priced extremely generously at 5/6 with bet365.
Leroy Sane over 0.5 assists – 6/4
Rapid German winger Leroy Sane has been one of Manchester City’s most productive players this season. The 23-year old has scored 11 goals and more importantly for us, racked up 11 assists in all competition’s this season for the Citizens during a campaign littered with moments of individual brilliance.
Sane has hit a particularly creative streak of late, laying on 4 goals for his teammates in his last 3 starts for the Premier League champions, and the young star is expected to feature heavily for City over the next few months in their quest to retain their title this season.
The former Schalke attacker’s blistering pace tends to be an extremely useful asset for City when they play away from home, with Sane’s ability to explode forward on the counter attack a key component of their multi-faceted attacking machine.
Sane is priced at what looks a huge 6/4 with bet365 to add another assist to his tally against Newcastle on Tuesday.
Check out all of the latest Premier League match previews, predictions and betting tips here.
- 1 day ago
- FIFA World Cup
- 2 days ago
- Betting Odds