Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
The start of the 2018/19 Premier League season is less than 24 hours away, so what better time to kick off a brand new weekly article giving you exactly what you asked for. A recent feedback survey revealed that you want more predictions and betting tips in the corners and cards market, and we don’t blame you!
The corners and cards markets offer some great untapped gems of value, but the enormous amount of research necessary puts a lot of people off. Fortunately, that’s exactly what we’re here for! We’ve painstakingly conducted the research for you, and rather than wade through hundreds of statistics you can simply visit us every week and get our betting tips and the reasoning to go with them.
Manchester United vs Leicester
On the face of it, the opening game of the Premier League campaign looks like it has the potential to be one that’s full of corners, but if you dig a little deeper you find that this may not be the case. A quick glance at the stats shows you that Leicester’s away games in the Premier League last season averaged 11.47 corners per game, but the majority of those came when they visited lesser teams. Away against the top six their matches averaged just 10 corners per game, with only two of these six games seeing 11 or more corners. Meanwhile, Manchester United’s home games against the bottom 14 Premier League sides averaged 10.21 corners per game, meaning a bet of Under 10.5 Corners at evens looks like a good value offering.
This difference translates across to Leicester’s chances of winning corners themselves as well. 4.79 corners won per away game last season indicates that they might have a good chance, but once again it’s a different story against the top six. There, they managed just 2.83 corners per away game, and four of their six trips to the big guns saw them pick up fewer than four total corners. Manchester United’s average of 3.95 corners conceded per home game also falls when you discount their top six rivals to 3.36 per game. Add to this that both teams will be without some of their main attacking threats, which will leave Jose Mourinho wanting to tightly control the game and Leicester stifled, and Leicester Under 3.5 Team Corners at 6/5 also looks a great bet.
Leicester’s low chance of winning many corners plays right into our hands for this next bet too. On average, Leicester conceded 4.33 more corners than their top six opponents away from home last season, while Manchester United won 3.5 more corners per game than their bottom 14 opponents when at Old Trafford. Five of The Foxes’ trips away to the big six saw them concede three or more corners than their opponents, with four of them seeing them concede four or more. Hence, backing Manchester United -3 Asian Corners at 2.00 is very attractive.
Liverpool vs West Ham
As you might expect, Jurgen Klopp’s fast paced, attacking brand of football results in a lot of the action taking place in the opponent’s final third. Unsurprisingly this often leads to them beating out their opponents in the corners race more often than not, and that effect is multiplied when they invite the smaller clubs to Anfield. Liverpool’s average of 5.21 more corners per game than their bottom 14 opponents at home is the third highest in the Premier League, and fortunately for us they’re facing a West Ham side who complement that perfectly. The Hammers conceded 5.67 more corners per game than their opponents when visiting the top six last season, which happens to be the third worst record in the top flight. Four of their trips away to the big six saw them concede at least five more corners than their hosts, so a Liverpool -4.5 Asian Corners at 1.9 is definitely worth considering.
Sticking with the corners market (for now), we go onto Liverpool’s propensity for winning set pieces. Klopp’s men averaged 7.71 corners per game at home vs the bottom 14 last season, and West ham conceded a huge 9 corners per game away to the top six. In fact, five of their six trips away in these matches saw them concede at least eight corners, so odds of 10/11 for Liverpool Over 7.5 Team Corners look fantastic.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Our first foray into the cards market of the new season comes at Craven Cottage on Saturday afternoon as Fulham and Crystal Palace go head to head in a potentially fiery London derby. Fittingly, the game is being watched over by Mike Dean, the most card happy referee in the top flight last season with 3.84 cards per game. Fulham’s home games in the Championship last season averaged 3.7 cards per game, and The Eagles almost match that with 3.63 cards per away game in the Premier League. James Tomkins, Luka Milivojevic, and Wilfried Zaha are all set to play as well – Tomkins picked up more cards than any other Palace player, while Milivojevic was the second most carded and committed the most fouls, and Wilfried Zaha was unsurprisingly the most fouled player. Over 3.5 Cards at 5/6 looks very tasty.
Back to the corners market now. Generally speaking, all other thing fairly equal, the home team tends to win more corners than the away team. This isn’t the case with Crystal Palace though, with them being one of only two teams outside of the top six to have won more corners than their opponents away from home against the bottom 14. On average Palace won 0.46 more corners than their hosts when away to the bottom 14, a record good enough to put them 7th in this particularly niche table. Backing Crystal Palace +0.5 Asian Corners at 2.00 is definitely worth considering.
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Sunday afternoon’s clash at the Emirates promises to be one of the standout fixtures of the weekend, but contests between the top six can often be fiery affairs. Manchester City, for all their beautiful football and possession, do have a mean streak. They picked up an average of 1.79 cards per game away from home last season, which is actually more than the overall average in the Premier League. This increases further when up against their potential title challengers, with Pep Guardiola’s men averaging 2.4 cards per game away to the top six. Four of their five trips away to the top six saw them pick up at least two cards on the day, and with both their most carded and second most carded players (Otamendi and Fernandinho respectively) set to play, we like the look of Manchester City Over 1.5 Team Cards at 8/11.
Despite their reputation for possession based football, Arsenal were actually one of the most adept sides at winning corners in the big games last season. They averaged a Premier League high 8.4 corners per game at home against the top six last season, substantially more than their 6.29 corners per game against the rest of the top flight. The Gunners won at least five corners in all of their home games against the top six, and with them facing a Manchester City side who conceded at least five corners in three of their five trips away to the top six backing Arsenal Over 4.5 Team Corners at 1/1 looks great value.
Unsurprisingly, that generally saw Arsenal win more corners than their visitors last season, leading us nicely onto our next bet. On average, Arsenal won four more corners per game than their opponents when hosting the top six, and in four of these five games they ended with more corners than their opponents. In the one match they failed to win the corners race they still only lost out by one corner, and Manchester City only had three or more corners than their opponents in two of their five trips away to the top six. The bookies seem enamoured with The Citizens’ attacking ability though, which means there’s a lot of value in an Arsenal +2 Asian Corners at 1.800.
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