As we approach the final stages of the Premier League season, the race for the title is very clearly a two-horse one. Manchester City hold a narrow 1 point lead at the top of the table after 31 games, but Liverpool are hot on their heels. The race for the Golden Boot however could not be any more open. Aguero sits out in front on 19 goals, but came off early with a knock against Fulham which may impede on his playing time. Just below the Argentine, sit the next 4 closest contenders, all on 17 goals. Those 4 players are Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Liverpool’s African duo of Sadio Mane and Mo Salah as well as Tottenham’s Harry Kane MBE.
Who will win the Premier League Golden Boot this season?
— Football Super Tips (@FootySuperTips) March 30, 2019
Pep Guardiola’s main man up front is currently sitting pretty on 19 goals for the season, 2 ahead of his nearest rivals. He’s enjoyed a fairly injury free season for the first time in years, and is the bookies favourite to fire his way to the coveted Golden Boot. Man City have some very favourable fixtures to close out the season too, as they face 4 sides inside the bottom 8 in their last 7 games. The other 3 games are at home against Spurs and Leicester, as well as the tricky away trip to Old Trafford to face Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United. There is a slight worry of rotation though for Aguero, as City are still fighting on all 4 fronts, including a tough double-header in the Champions League against Tottenham in April. We believe that Aguero is the most likely man to win the Golden Boot this season, but he does not represent the greatest value. You can back him to finish top scorer at 11/8.
Second favourite to finish top scorer this season is World Cup Golden Boot winner Harry Kane MBE. He currently sits tied with 3 other players on 17 goals for the season, and has spent a decent amount of the season out with injury. Tottenham have been in terrible form since Kane’s return, losing 3 and drawing 1, but the Englishman has found the net 3 times in those 4 games. Like Manchester City, they also have the Champions League to worry about, and will have to face the Citizens 3 times in the space of 12 days. It is unlikely that Kane will be rested during this period, but the fatigue he may endure from playing so many games so recently after coming back from injury may hamper his performances. Not only that, but Tottenham also face some tricky fixtures in the run in to the end of the season, facing Liverpool away, as well as Man City and Everton at home. He is certainly in with a chance, but we think odds of 4/1 are slightly too short, given Spurs’ poor form and Champions League commitments.
Next up is last season’s Golden Boot winner Mo Salah. In the 17-18 season, he blew away the competition scoring 32 goals, the most ever in a 38-game Premier League season. This season his form hasn’t been quite as blistering though, netting 17 times in 32 games so far. The Egyptian has been in some very poor form too by his standards, not scoring in any of his last 6 Premier League games. This lack of form makes him unlikely to win the Golden Boot this season, with Liverpool also having 1 eye on the Champions League. They have an easy draw against Porto, but they have some tricky games in the Premier League. They face Chelsea at home, Newcastle away, as well as the team that knocked them out of the FA Cup, Wolves, on the final day of the season. A combination of poor fixtures and even worse form, means that we think 4/1 for Salah to win the Golden Boot are too short to be worthwhile.
The only man on this list not in the Champions League, Aubameyang can focus more on winning the Golden Boot than any of his contenders. Like Kane, Salah and Mane, he sits on 17 goals for the campaign, but he does have a favourable fixture against Newcastle at home on Monday night. The Gabonese forward has recently re-found his form, netting twice in his last 3 Premier League matches. Arsenal also have the easiest fixtures of anyone on this list, facing none of the top 6 in their remaining 8 games. Home matches against Newcastle, Palace and Brighton provide plenty of opportunities to rack up the goals, with Watford and Burnley away also making for suitable breeding grounds for a few goals. The only real worry is the potential of rotation, but with Aubameyang in good form, and Arsenal in a close fight with Manchester United and Tottenham for a spot in the top 4, Emery can not afford to rest his top striker. We think odds of 6/1 provide great value, considering Arsenal’s easy fixtures.
Last on the list, and least likely of the 5 according to the bookie’s odds is Liverpool’s Sadio Mane. The Senegalese forward sits level with the previous 3 on 17 goals, but is actually in by far the best form of the 4. Mane has scored 9 goals in his last 10 games, making up for Salah’s goal drought to keep Liverpool in close proximity of Man City in the title race. Unlike the other 4 players on this list though, Mane does not have penalties on his side, with Salah and Milner ahead of him in the pecking order. This will limit his potential goalscoring output for sure, and it is unlikely that he will keep up the blistering form he’s been in for the remainder of the campaign. As mentioned before with Salah, Liverpool have some tricky fixtures in the run in, as well as Champions League matches to focus on, so with that in mind and the lack of penalties, we think Mane will come up short this season. If you do fancy him though, he sits at a tasty price of 11/1.
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