If our Super Bowl predictions aren’t enough for you and you’re looking to get some more skin the game during Super Bowl LIV, then look no further. The great thing about the Super Bowl, besides the incredible matchups, is that sportsbooks go head over heels to give us as many wagering options as possible.
One of the markets that gets quite extensive for the Super Bowl is the player props market, where you can wager on individual players to over or underperform their on various targets like completions, yardage, touchdowns, interceptions, and more.
Player props are always available throughout the NFL regular season, but during the Super Bowl the offerings are maximized as almost every player on the field has a prop that you can wager on for their performance. Below we outlined all of our favorite props for Super Bowl LIV for both the Chiefs and 49ers.
One important thing about the player props market is that sportsbooks understand that most people like rooting for overs and yards and points because it leads to a more exciting game, so they will inflate both the prop and price to take advantage of this behavioral bias. Be careful of over-inflated lines like Mahomes’ passing props and the 49ers’ rushing props.
Super Bowl LIV Player Prop Bets
Raheem Mostert (SF 49ers) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Mostert has emerged as the workhorse of the 49ers backfield especially in the second half of the season and the playoffs. Since Week 13, Mostert has averaged 15 carries a game and has scored in 6 of those 7 games with a total of 11 touchdowns (10 rushing, 1 receiving).
Given his high volume in the offense and the Chiefs’ poor run defense, we love Mostert to find the endzone on the ground once the Niners get the ball into the redzone.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF 49ers) Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards
This is an interesting prop because Jimmy G has been very underrated throwing the ball downfield this season. San Francisco has the #1 explosive pass offense in the league, with an explosive pass being defined as a completed pass of over 20 yards. Considering how much success the Niners have had in the deep passing game, it doesn’t seem like a huge stretch to see one of the 49ers’ speedsters break one off to get us over this total.
Kyle Juzczyk (SF 49ers) Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
As we noted in our Super Bowl preview, we love the role Juzcyzk has in the 49ers offense. He’s typically guarded by linebackers and provides a tough matchup for them because of his unique mix of speed and strength for a fullback. HC Kyle Shanahan also motions him out as a receiver and gets him involved in the screen game, so we feel confident that Juzcyzk will be able to eclipse this total on just a simple screen or wheel route because defenses never seem prepared for it.
Damien Williams Under 80.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
This play has a lot to do with the return of fellow running back LeSean McCoy, who has been upgraded to probable. Williams has had an increased workload recently but hasn’t been overly productive. He’s averaged just 3.17 yards per carry in the playoffs and has only registered 65 receiving yards in those two games despite being targeted a whopping 12 times.
We don’t see this as sustaining volume now that Shady McCoy is back, and we think the Chiefs’ success in the passing game will lead them away from the run, making it more likely that McCoy stays in over Williams as the prominent pass-catching back.
Neither Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times
We think this will be a back-and-forth battle where neither team pulls away, so the price on this prop is enough for us to recommend it. Both offenses will go back and forth so it seems unlikely that one of these offenses is stopped enough times in a row for the other to score three times in a a row. The price is good enough to warrant the risk so we will take a shot with two great, consistent offenses on each sideline.