Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Predictions

After they saw off League Two’s Colchester in the last round, Accrington have slumped to four defeats in a row. Despite leading with less than 15 minutes of regulation time remaining on Tuesday night, Stanley somehow found a way to lose against Wycombe, so confidence may not be buzzing around the home dressing room ahead of this match, though the hosts will know that this match against fourth-tier opponents represents a good opportunity for them to bounce back.

Accrington did lose out to Wycombe on Tuesday night, though it must be said that they were mightily unfortunate to do so. On the balance of play, Stanley were the only winners, as the fact that they ended the match with an expected goal supremacy of +1.0 suggests. That result will have disappointed manager John Coleman, but the gaffer will know that if his side replicate that performance against League Two opposition on Saturday, then they’ll be celebrating a return to winning ways.

From a performance point of view, Accrington have done well at home during the current campaign. They’ve adopted an attacking approach, have got at teams and have often been rewarded for doing so. With their expected goals for average of 1.74, it’s easy to see the League One hosts, who’re currently the sixth best team in League One when it comes to expected goals for, causing Cheltenham some real problems.

As for the visitors, well, it’s fair to say that things have gone awry for Cheltenham in League Two this season. Michael Duff’s men find themselves down in 22^nd position, while they come into this fixture off the back of a 4-1 defeat away at Bury. Their performance on that occasion tells us that they’re anything but capable of dealing with the threat posed by one of League One’s more astute attacking sides.

Cheltenham’s performances on the road have been poor this season, and it is their away-day efforts that tells us that competing in this fixture is likely to be beyond them. On average, the Robins have given up 1.8 expected goals on their travels in League Two, while they’ve responded with an average of just 1.03 at the other end. Such stats do not bode well.

All in all, this is a big opportunity for Accrington to regain the winning thread after Tuesday’s disappointment. With the hosts averaging a promising 1.74 expected goals for at home in League One and with the visitors giving up 1.8 on their travels in the division below, the bet that stands out is ‘Accrington to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’.