AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United Predictions

• Bournemouth have won their last three games, generating at least 3.2 xG in each
• West Ham have lost three of their last four on the road
• The Cherries have won four of their last five at home, beating City, Arsenal and Spurs
• The hosts have won five of seven encounters with bottom half sides

Have West Ham turned a corner?

A 2-1 victory over Wolves last weekend likely kept Julen Lopetegui at West Ham, but has he really turned things around at the London Stadium? The Hammers have won two of their previous four matches, but their performances remain a concern.

Across West Ham’s last six matches, they’ve won the Expected Goals battle on just one occasion – a 3-1 defeat at Leicester. They had fewer shots on target than Wolves in that relegation six-pointer last Monday, while this week’s clash is a significant step up in difficulty.

Iraola has Cherries soaring

Bournemouth have won three games on the spin ahead of Monday’s encounter, putting them just three points shy of the top four ahead of this weekend’s fixtures. Unlike their opponents, the Cherries have also been good value for each of those wins.

The hosts have recorded at least 3.2 Expected Goals in each of their last three matches, with their strongest display coming in their last game at the Vitality in a 1-0 win over Tottenham. Spurs were fortunate not to walk away humiliated given the scale of the Cherries’ dominance.

Andoni Iraola has already proven himself in English football, but the level he has taken this Bournemouth side to appears to be flying under the radar.

Hosts can run away with this one

Bournemouth have won four of their last five home matches, a run which has seen them beat Arsenal, Man City and Spurs. Their only defeat in that run – a 2-1 loss to Brighton – saw them win the xG battle 1.6 to 0.9. In fact, the Cherries have outperformed their opponents’ underlying numbers in nine of their last 10 Premier League outings.

With West Ham heading into this game on the back of three defeats in four trips, a home win looks generously priced. The Cherries have won five of seven meetings with sides who went into the weekend in the bottom half, while the visitors have claimed two points from eight encounters with sides from 11th and above.

The hosts should carve through a West Ham side that is fourth-bottom in terms of Expected Goals Against, conceding 28 times to their 26.7 xG faced. That should allow Marcus Tavernier to return to scoring form, with the midfielder going without a goal despite impressing across their last three games. He’s scored just once despite accumulating 10 shots on target and 4.1 xG, so back the midfielder to net on Monday night.