AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United Predictions

• West Ham have scored in each of their last nine games, losing just once
• The Hammers have conceded in 11 of their last 12 league trips
• Bournemouth have scored six times across their last four, with their performances notably improved in April

Back to reality for Hammers

After the joy of booking a place in a European semi-final, it’s back to the grind for West Ham as they fight for their Premier League future. They beat Gent 4-1 on Thursday night to progress in the Europa Conference League, but Sunday sees them head south for a relegation six-pointer against Bournemouth.

The Cherries sit two points ahead of the Hammers, with the pair both in reach of the drop zone. A victory for either side would lift them clear of danger and would go a long way towards securing safety, but both need to avoid defeat at all costs.

Bournemouth on the up

Bournemouth have been on a surge this month to bolster their survival bid, having picked up three wins in April. The Cherries have won as many games this month as they did between November and March. They’ve clearly peaked at the right time, moving six points clear of the drop zone with eight games left to play.

Bournemouth’s performances have been noticeably better in that period too. In their four Premier League games in April 2023 so far, the Cherries’ average expected goals total has been 1.96 per game, a sharp improvement compared to 0.89 per game between August and March.

In additional to that, they’ve had at least six shots on target in three of their four matches this month. They averaged 5.8 per game in that stretch, having 6+ efforts on target efforts in just three of their first 27 league games this season. That attacking improvement has helped the Cherries to six goals in those four games and they can trouble the Hammers on Sunday.

Back goals at Vitality

West Ham have seen their form turn in recent weeks, which has helped them pull away from the bottom three. However, their form in recent weeks hasn’t been built on defensive stability. The visitors have seen both teams score in four of their last five games, while clean sheets have been hard to come by for them on the road.

The Hammers have conceded in 86% of their away Premier League games this season, while they have shipped a goal in 11 of their last 12 away trips in the league. However, they’ve lost once in their last nine in all competitions and haven’t drawn a blank in that run, so backing goals is the way to go in this one.

While the Hammers are on a good run, Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last four against them at the Vitality Stadium. Caution may take hold in the pair late on as they look to avoid a damaging defeat, so back them to settle for a 1-1 draw with the two sides conceding plenty of early goals this season.

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