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Ajax vs Legia Warsaw Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 18:00
  • Expired
  • Amsterdam Arena
Legia Warsaw

Tip Reasoning

Ajax dominated the first leg in Poland last week, but they were unable to make that count. They travelled home having failed to take an advantage, but can they book a last 16 spot with a victory over Legia? Home advantage should make things easier for the Dutch giants, and they could be a dark horse in this competition if they can make the next round. The hosts are 28/1 with bet365 to win the trophy, but could they threaten the favourites? If they gather momentum they can, and this competition will be important for them, since they can’t seem to close the gap on Eredivisie leaders Feyenoord.

Ajax are backed up by a strong record at the Amsterdam Arena, and that should see them qualify here. They’re heavy favourites to win this second leg, probably because they’ve won every Europa League game here this season. The hosts have won all but one of their last 13 outings on their own patch, while they’ve racked up a 10 game unbeaten run in this competition. Given that, bet365 make Legia 150/1 outsiders for this trophy, it’s difficult to see them ending that run.

In comparison, Legia have won just one of their last seven matches in the Europa League. They also lost all three of their Champions League trips by at least two goals, losing those by an aggregate score of 15-5. While that came against the likes of Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid, it’s still worrying ahead of this tie. They’re pitting that poor record against an excellent Ajax defence, one who concede just 0.61 goals per game in the Eredivisie. The hosts managed three clean sheets in their last six matches in this competition, while they’ve let in just 0.46 per match at home in all competitions since the start of September.

That strong foundation has contributed to some big victories, as has their impressive record in front of goal. They scored two or more in 67% of group stage games in this competition, while they have scored at least two in 73% of their home league games. Ajax have won by two or more in 64% of their Eredivisie victories. It’s easy to see another comfortable margin for the hosts on Thursday night.

Legia lost 4-0 on aggregate when these two sides met at this stage of the competition two years ago, and we think they’re about to suffer another big away defeat. Having failed to show much on their travels in the Champions League, we aren’t expecting much at the Amsterdam Arena. We’re backing Ajax to win with a -1 Asian Handicap, which is 7/10 with bet365.

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