Austria vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Predictions

After an excellent start to life in the newly formed UEFA Nations League, Bosnia have continued to thrive. Since winning by two goals to nil in Northern Ireland on match-day one, Robert Prosinečki’s men have beaten Thursday’s opponents at home, while they come into this match off the back of their second win against the Northern Irish last time out. With three good results under their belts, the Bosnians ought to go to Vienna in confident mood.

The Bosnians were unable to grace Russia with their presence in the summer, but it’s not taken them long to get over that disappointment. Prosinečki’s men have won each of their three games in the UEFA Nations League, scoring five goals and conceding just one in the process.

However, while it appears that Bosnia have cruised on the face of it, the underlying numbers suggest that they’ve been a tad fortunate. When beating Northern Ireland on match-day one, Thursday’s visitors gave plenty away, so much so that they would’ve been lucky to draw let alone claim all three points. On that occasion, Bosnia clocked a total of 1.27 expected goals for, while they conceded a rather unimpressive 2.86. What’s more, when beating Austria by a goal to nil on home soil, Bosnia were a bit lucky. They weren’t totally outclassed, but you couldn’t say that they did anywhere near enough to merit the victory.

Even when they beat Northern Ireland at home last time out, although their performance was far from poor, the fact that the final expected goal figures read 1.63 – 1.56 suggested that Prosinečki’s side were a tad lucky to win by two goals to nil.

In contrast, Austria dominated against Northern Ireland last time out and were deserving 1-0 winners. On that occasion, Thursday’s hosts weren’t overly flashy going forward, but they created enough, while they gave very little away. Unlike Bosnia, who gave up 1.56 expected goals when facing Northern Ireland at home, Austria surrendered just 0.25. If we consider this in conjunction with the fact that Franco Foda’s men were the better side when the teams met in Zenica, then it’s easy to fancy the hosts ahead of this fixture.

Having looked more secure defensively since the start of this campaign and having had the better of the reverse fixture, the Austrians are backed to gain revenge and come out on top in front of a home crowd.