AZ Alkmaar vs Zenit St Petersburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

AZ Alkmaar may have lost 5-0 to Zenit St Petersburg in their first meeting in this group, but they’re on course to qualify alongside the Russians. The hosts come into this game in second, currently a point above Dundalk and Maccabi Tel Aviv. To secure a place in the top two, the Dutch side are going to need to take three points in their second meeting with Zenit.

They’ll be hoping to take advantage of Zenit’s progression, they’ve already wrapped up qualification and top spot, with the chasing pack some way behind. that doesn’t guarantee that the visitors will come here with a weakened team on show. In fact, there’s actually little reason for the away side to make that many changes to their team for their final game in this group.

Zenit’s final group game is actually their final match of the year, so it’s not like their stars need a rest. Their winter break has already kicked in domestically; they just need to get around this last hurdle. Their next game will probably be their first knockout round match in the Europa League, as the Russian Premier League returns in March. With such a big gap on the horizon, it’s easy to see these players being slightly distracted ahead of a meaningless game.

AZ will be solely focused on qualifying for the last 32, but they need to worry about their home defensive record. They’ve conceded a goal in 71% of their home Eredivisie games, while they average 1.29 goals against per match. They’ve also conceded from 15% of the shots they’ve faced in the Europa League so far. The majority of those strikes came from their next opponents.

Meanwhile, the visitors have seen 25% of their shots hit the back on the next away from home in Europe. With that kind of strike rate, the Russians should get a goal here. However, they’ve seen 25% of the shots they’ve faced end up in the net. That record comes from just eight shots against per match. AZ have averaged 18 chances from their two home matches here, while they’ve averaged 2.43 goals per outing in front of their own fans.

It’s easy to see this being an open affair, while we can see both of these defences conceding at least once each. With Zenit able to free themselves up and AZ pushing for a crucial victory, we’re backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. That’s priced at 11/10 with bet365, and it looks like a good value bet, considering their scoring form.