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Barnsley vs Portsmouth Predictions

  • 15:00
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  • Oakwell

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      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Had this match come just a week ago, Portsmouth would have gone to Oakwell full of confidence, though as it is, they’ll now be heading north off the back of their first league defeat in nine matches, so they may not be feeling so great. That said, Tuesday’s loss may have given Jackett’s men a timely wake-up call, which means that they’ll be fired up and determined to resume winning ways.

      Neither Barnsley nor Portsmouth have lost all that often this season, so it is reasonably surprising that both come into this match off the back of tasting defeat last time out.

      Barnsley were beaten by Wycombe last weekend and if we’re being completely honest, it’s tough to say that they did enough to win the game. They weren’t bettered by Wycombe, so the Tykes will have been disappointed to come away with nothing, but if you’re going to go away and not offer much, then you can’t really have any complaints.

      Fortunately, Daniel Stendel’s men have played very well at home this season. Barnsley remain unbeaten at Oakwell, and while they have failed to win 40% of their matches in front of a home crowd, performances have almost always been strong. The Tykes are averaging an impressive 2.05 expected goals for, so forging scoring opportunities is not something that they struggle with, while they’ve given up just 1.03 at the other end, so they’re also reasonably good at nullifying their opponents.

      Creating more and giving away less is also something that Portsmouth have done well on their travels, though they’ve not been as impressive as Barnsley have at Oakwell. On the road, Kenny Jackett’s men have scored an average of 1.6 goals, while they’ve given up just 0.7 at the other end.

      Such numbers paint Pompey in a very favourable light, though they don’t tell the full story. Offensively the number of goals scored by Pompey match their level of creativity, as they’re averaging a very respectable 1.61 expected goals for on the road. However, at the other end, the league leaders have been somewhat fortunate, as they’re surrendering an average of 1.38 expected goals, which tells us that they have given away enough chances to concede a fair few more goals when playing away from home.

      In general, Pompey have bettered their opponents on the road, but from a performance point of view, they have had a few wobbles. Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Doncaster and Bradford all created plenty when hosting Kenny Jackett’s men, so it’s easy to see the Tykes doing well on Saturday.

      At the prices, the bet that stands out as offering a slice of value is ‘Barnsley to Score Over 1.5 Goals’. Several teams have created enough to notch a couple of goals against Pompey this season, but either a lack of end-product or just bad luck has prevented them from doing so, but Barnsley don’t often lack end-product, while they’re certainly good enough to create against any team in this division.

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