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BATE Borisov vs Arsenal Predictions

  • 17:55
  • Expired
  • Borisov Arena
BATE Borisov
      • BT Sport 1

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Facing Arsenal won’t be easy, though the Belarusians are no pushovers on their own patch, as they proved when losing by just a single goal against Chelsea in the group stages. Having competed well during the groups, BATE will fancy themselves to, at the very least, make life tough for Unai Emery’s men on Thursday evening.

      BATE didn’t turn many heads during the groups, but they did what they had to do to advance and that was make themselves hard to beat in crucial games. The side from Belarus found Chelsea too hot to handle at Stamford Bridge, but they were otherwise reasonably solid, while their efforts at home weren’t too displeasing.

      In their first home match, BATE lost against PAOK, though the score-line was anything but a true reflection on what happened in the game. It would be wrong to say that they deserved something from the match, but they didn’t deserve to concede four goals, as the fact that they surrendered 1.41 expected goals suggests. When they took on Chelsea at this venue, Thursday’s hosts improved greatly, as they delivered a disciplined performance and gave away just 1.06 expected goals. Moreover, when beating Vidi in their final group match at Borisov Arena, BATE showed further improvement at the back, as they kept a clean sheet and surrendered just 0.37 expected goals.

      Going forward, even on their own patch, BATE didn’t exactly do too much during the group stages; they averaged just a goal a game, which judging by their average of 0.71 expected goals for was a bit lucky.

      Arsenal made light work of reaching the knockout rounds, as they went through the groups unbeaten, winning five out of six. What’s more, their performances were convincing, as they set about deploying an attacking style of football, a style that saw them score plenty of goals. In six group matches, Unai Emery’s men registered a pleasing 12 goals.

      Thursday’s visitors come into this match having won each of their three travelling matches in the Europa League this season. They brushed aside both Vorskla and Qarabag, showing that they can travel east and deliver dominant performances, while they also ground out a win away against Sporting. Such results bode well, as does the fact that they’re averaging 1.81 expected goals for and are conceding an average of just 0.52 on the road in this competition.

      All things considered, Arsenal are tough to oppose ahead of this match. Playing away from home proved to be no inconvenience for the Gunners during the groups, while the hosts, for all they weren’t terrible, did struggle to do much against both PAOK and Chelsea.

      At the prices, the best option appears to be ‘Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. The visitors have the offensive quality to get the better of BATE, while their away-day defensive efforts during the groups suggest that they can keep things tight at the back too, though what with a second leg at the Emirates to come, we shouldn’t expect Emery’s men to run riot in Borisov.

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