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Benfica vs Chaves Predictions

  • 17:00
  • Expired
  • Estadio da Luz
Benfica
Chaves

Chaves +3

Reason for tip

Three of Benfica’s five home league opponents this season have covered a +3 handicap. Visitors Chaves, meanwhile, have beaten two of the top four in Portugal away fr0m home this season.

4/7odds when tipped

Benfica 3-1

Reason for tip

Benfica have racked up 18 goals in five home games this season (average 3.6 per game) while Chaves have registered in three of five away trips.

10/1odds when tipped
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Benfica vs Chaves Predictions

  • Three of Benfica’s five home league opponents this season have covered a +3 handicap.
  • Chaves have beaten two of the top four in Portugal away fr0m home this season.
  • Benfica have accumulated 18 goals in five home games this season (average 3.6 per game) while Chaves have registered in three of five away trips.

Eagles have been stat-padding with easy home routs

Benfica are too short to back just to win the match and Chaves are too well-organised to expect a landslide home in here, so the value play may be to oppose the Eagles on the handicap. The question then is how many goals is it safe to assume Vitor Campelos’ side do not go down by if Benfica continue in the record-setting form they are showing right now.

Roger Schmidt’s men have won all five of their home league games in 2022-23 by an average margin of 2.6 goals, a stat that was padded by them thrashing bottom club Maritimo 5-0 and taking advantage of Arouca being reduced to ten men in a 4-0 rout. Their three other games – all against teams below ninth-placed Chaves in the current standings, were won by one or two goals.

It’s reasonable to compare Chaves to Benfica’s last home league opponents Rio Ave because both mid-table clubs have had their successes against Portugal’s big teams already this season. Rio Ave beat Porto 3-1 at home in August but, despite taking an early lead, fell to a 4-2 defeat at Estadio da Luz.

Chaves have backbone to surpress Benfica onslaught 

Chaves secured two very good away wins against Sporting Lisbon and Braga this term, both with clean sheets, although this is another step up against a free-scoring Benfica side. They are also coming off a good 3-1 win over Gil Vicente and while it may be tempting to back both teams to score to find some good odds here, our preference is to take the visitors +3 on the handicap at around 4/7.

Benfica have accumulated 18 goals in five home games this season (average 3.6 per game) while Chaves have shipped just once per game on average. Scorelines of 2-0 or 3-1 would both be covered by the +3 handicap and both look equally likely here with Chaves’ ability to score against Sporting and Braga encouraging us to take the 3-1 option for correct score purposes – also due to the fact Benfica shipped three at home to Juventus only a few days before.

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