Borussia Monchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

• Borussia Monchengladbach have won three of their last five home Bundesliga games.
• Arminia Bielefeld lost both matches against Gladbach last season (0-1 & 5-0).

Stats suggest Foals can find their feet against Blues

Borussia Monchengladbach are languishing in the bottom half of the table after taking a solitary point from their opening three games, but the underlying stats suggest they are unlucky.

They were worthy of a draw at Union Berlin last time out and, although outplayed, didn’t deserve to be beaten 4-0 by Bayer Leverkusen the week before.

Their only positive result this season came in the 1-1 opening round draw with Bayern Munich when they led for over 30 minutes against the champions.

It won’t take much for the tide to turn and Gladbach to start looking like the side that flitted between fifth and eighth for much of last season.

Likewise, it might not be too long before Bielefeld are back in a familiar position around the relegation zone,

The Blues have one of the worst expected goals against numbers in the league, suggesting they should have conceded four more goals than they actually have done on the quality of chances created against them so far.

They were hammered 5-0 at Borussia-Park when last they played there in April and were also beaten at home by Gladbach last term.

The odds reflect how confident the hosts should be of picking up the three points on Sunday and we like the chances of Adi Hutter’s side covering a -1 handicap.

Half of the Foals’ home wins last season were by greater than one goal and a visit from a Bielefeld side with the worst goal expectancy in the table right now looks like a good chance to get another.

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