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Bradford vs Luton Town Predictions

  • 19:45
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  • Valley Parade
Bradford
    Luton

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Bradford vs Luton Predictions

      When they needed to improve their fortunes, Bradford came up with the goods on Saturday afternoon, as they beat Peterborough by three goals to one at this venue. That win has left the Bantams, who’re now under the stewardship of Gary Bowyer, four points from safety. Unfortunately, with both Rochdale and Wimbledon winning, Bradford’s position hasn’t improved too much, even after their weekend win.

      As important as Bradford’s win at the weekend was, it’s important not to get carried away. The Bantams remain in big trouble, while it’s also easy to say that they were fortunate to beat Peterborough. Bowyer’s men created less than their opponents, which is never too positive. By creating just 0.82 expected goals and conceding 1.86, Bradford probably didn’t deserve to walk away with a 3-1 win. Ultimately, the win is all that matters, but they’ll need to deliver a much-improved performance if they’re to maintain the winning thread.

      Prior to Saturday’s game, Bradford had been performing reasonably well at home. They offered lots more than Plymouth while they gave little away against Fleetwood. Prior to that, they showed themselves to be capable in terms of both creativity and end-product when scoring four against Shrewsbury. However, they’re up against one of the top teams here, and facing the top teams has been something that the Bantams have struggled with this season.

      At home, Bradford have already faced four of the current top six. Of those four matches, they’ve lost four, have scored just once and have conceded seven times. However, while their results against the top teams have been poor, the underlying numbers suggest that they’ve competed well. They’ve shipped an average of 1.45 expected goals against top-six teams at Valley Parade, which isn’t too bad, while they bettered both Portsmouth and Sunderland in terms of expected goals, clocking 1.55 against Pompey and 1.81 against the Black Cats.

      Luton’s long unbeaten run continued at the weekend, though by drawing 0-0 away against Plymouth the Hatters proved that they’re not exactly infallible. Both Coventry and Plymouth have denied Luton in recent weeks, so the hosts may just fancy themselves to get something from this game.

      As impressive as Luton have been at times, and they have been impressive, it’s fair to say that they’ve not always played their best stuff on the road. An average of 1.57 expected goals for is pleasing, but not overly menacing, while an average of 1.23 against is decent, but not amazing. What’s more, for some reason, the Hatters have tended to be met with a struggle when facing the lesser teams away from home, as draws away against Plymouth, Walsall, Rochdale and Wycombe suggest.

      When we consider that Bradford have delivered some decent performances against the top teams at home this season, alongside the fact that there’s not a huge chasm between Luton’s underlying numbers on the road and Bradford’s at home (Bradford have conceded an average of 1.34 expected goals at home, while Luton have conceded an average of 1.23 away), the bet that stands out is ‘Bradford Draw No Bet’. Punters certainly shouldn’t go mad siding with the hosts, though Gary Bowyer’s men deserve to be a tad shorter in the betting, so backing them, with the insurance that ‘Draw No Bet’ provides, offers some value.

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